新冠疫情对住房市场的影响及分化趋势

IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON HOUSING MARKET AND DEVELOPMENT TEND IN POST-EPIDEMIC PERIOD

从总量关系看,新冠肺炎疫情对中国住房市场的发展造成了短期冲击,但2020年2-3月住房市场恢复较为显著。从结构视角看,新冠疫情导致了住房市场的分化趋势:开发市场的资源进一步向头部房企集聚,土地市场重新回归一线城市和热点二线城市;住宅成为个人收入分配和财富分配的加速器;不同资金运作模式的长租公寓在疫情检验下高下立分,资金链条长、涉及面广的长租公寓在疫情中面临淘汰局面。疫情之下深圳楼市的跳涨与整个经济金融下行的趋势形成了悖论,我们认为导致这一悖论的原因是分化造成的:高净值人群首先推动了深圳房价的上涨,随后中等收入群体加入其中,当然整个过程也离不开信贷资金的支持。针对分化趋势以及部分地区泡沫再起的现象,我们提出以下政策建议:第一,住房政策目标应由过去促进住房供给转向重点保障弱势群体、支持中等收入群体的住房需求,着力解决住房市场发展不平衡的问题。第二,提升对住房租赁市场的监管能力,尤其是对住房金融的监管能力。第三,坚持“房住不炒”,保持政策定力,抑制房价泡沫。

For aggregate relation,the COVID-19 has a short-term impact on the development of China's housing market,but the housing market recovered signifi cantly from February to March of 2020.For structure,the COVID-19 leads to the differentiation trend of housing market:the resources of development market are further concentrated to the head real estate enterprises,while the land market returns to the fi rst-tier cities and hot second-cities;house becomes the accelerator of personal income distribution and wealth distribution;the long-term rental apartments with different capital operation modes are divided under the test of the epidemic situation,while those with long capital chain and wide coverage may be eliminated during the epidemic period.Under the epidemic situation,the jump of real estate market in Shenzhen has formed a paradox with the downward trend of the whole economy and fi nance.We believe that the paradox is caused by differentiation:the high-net-worth group fi rstly promote the rise of housing prices in Shenzhen,then the middleincome group joined in this game,of course,the whole process cannot do without the support of credit funds.According to the differentiation trend and the emergence of bubbles in some areas,we propose the following policy recommendations:First,the goal of housing policy shall shift from promoting housing supply in the past to ensuring the housing demand of vulnerable groups and middle-income groups,and strive to solve the problem of unbalanced development of housing market.Second,the supervision ability of housing rental market shall be improved,especially the supervision ability of housing fi nance.Third,we shall adhere to the principle of"housing residence instead of vicious speculation",maintain the policy stability and restrain the housing price bubble.