新冠疫情对贸易的影响机制

THINKING AHEAD ABOUT THE TRADE IMPACT OF COVID-19

无论从供给侧还是需求侧的角度来看,新冠肺炎疫情都将影响国际货物和服务贸易。本文试图用历史和经济的逻辑来预测此次疫情对贸易的影响。研究发现,疫情对全球经济和贸易的影响沿着供应链扩散是很有可能的。虽然新冠肺炎疫情似乎不太可能像2008-2009年的全球危机那样对世界经济造成如此严重和广泛的冲击,但贸易受到重创的时间可能不会很短。在疫情冲击下,政策和企业的错误反应可能会对贸易体系造成永久性损害。我们不应将大流行病视作反全球化的正当理由。

Both supply shock and demand shock of COVID-19 will impact international trade in goods and services.This paper is an attempt to think ahead about the trade effects using history and economic logic to guide the forward-looking effort.The key takeaway is that the virus is likely to be as‘contagious’economically through global supply chain.It seems at this point unlikely that COVID-19 would hit the world economy as hard and as broadly as the Global Crisis did in 2008-09,but it is worth noting that the trade contract was sharp,not particularly short.There is a danger of permanent damage to the trade system driven by policy and firms’reactions.We should not misinterpret pandemic as a justification for anti-globalism.