新战略与规划工程下的黄河流域未来水资源配置格局研究

Future water resources allocation pattern for the Yellow River Basin driven by strategy and projects

黄河流域人口聚集,生态、能源、粮食、矿产资源丰富,在中国战略地位显著.然而,黄河天然来水量不足,导致流域水资源供需情势严峻,黄河发展新战略与水利工程规划由此而生.厘清新形势下黄河流域未来水资源配置格局,对大型流域水资源管理和水量精细化调度具有重要意义.基于黄河流域现状水资源配置格局分析成果,解析黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展、流域相关城市群发展战略,探讨其对黄河水资源可能的影响;其次,分析黄河流域未来供需情势,提出全新的水资源配置思路,研究新战略与规划工程条件下的黄河流域未来水资源配置格局.研究成果可为全球其他流域在战略和规划工程影响下的水资源管理提供参考.

The Yellow River Basin is a large populous area with abundant ecology,energy,food,and ore resources,which plays a prominent strategic role in China.However,the lack of natural water inflow of Yellow River has resulted in a severe water supply and demand dilemma;hence a new development strategy and the planning of water conservancy projects for the Yellow River were born.It is of great significance for the water resources management of large river basins and the precise water regulation to figure out the future water resources allocation pattern of the Yellow River Basin.Based on the analysis results of the current allocation pattern of the Yellow River Basin,we analyzed the ecological protection and high-quality development of the basin and the development strategies for the urban agglomerations in the basin,discussed possible impact of the new approach on the water resources status of the basin,then put forward a new scheme of water resources allocation.Furthermore,we studied the future water resources allocation pattern of the Yellow River Basin under the influence of new strategies and proposed projects.The research results can provide references for the water resources management of other river basins of the world under similar influence.