风电机组轴系的剩余寿命预估

Prognosis of remaining lifetime of wind turbine unit shafting

风电机组轴系作为传动系统的关键部件,其剩余寿命的准确预估有利于维修方案的优化,从而有效降低运行成本。提出了一种风电机组轴系的退化-扭振耦合模型,结合了慢速的退化过程和快速的转动行为,同时引入不确定量风速对轴系退化的影响。运用四阶龙格-库塔算法和雨流统计法,通过多次蒙特卡罗模拟得到退化度曲线,进一步求得剩余寿命的期望和方差。结果表明,风电机组轴系的退化度呈指数发展,剩余寿命的期望和方差随退化度呈负指数变化。

As a key component of the transmission system,the accurate prognosis of shafting remaining life⁃time of the wind turbine unit is beneficial to the optimization of maintenance plan and the reduction of operating cost effectively.A degeneration-torsional vibration coupling model of wind turbine unit shafting is proposed,which combines the slow degradation process and rapid rotation behavior,and the influence of uncertain wind speed on unit shafting degradation is introduced.Using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta algo⁃rithm and rainflow statistics method,the degradation curve is obtained by multiple Monte Carlo simulations,and the expectation and variance of remaining lifetime are further obtained.The results show that the deg⁃radation of the wind turbine unit shafting is exponential,and the expectation and variance of the remaining lifetime are negatively exponential with the degradation.