基于系统模拟的县域水资源承载力动态预测及调控研究——以庐江县为例

Research on the Dynamic Prediction and Regulation of Quantitative and Quality Elements of Water Resources Carrying County-level Capacity Based on System Dynamics Method

为实现区域水资源承载力的水量水质要素动态预测和定量调控,提出基于系统动力学方法的县域水资源承载力量质要素动态预测及定量调控方法。以巢湖流域庐江县为例,首先,在区域水资源承载力量质要素诊断指标的基础上,构建基于系统动力学的水资源承载力模拟预测模型;其次,由诊断指标推断水资源承载力的表征指标,得出水资源承载力量质要素的动态预测值;然后根据变量的可操作性和敏感性,从诊断指标筛选部分变量作为调控指标;最后,基于预测模型采用正交试验方法对调控指标进行优化以达到对区域水资源承载力的量质要素进行定量调控的目的。结果表明:选取的具有代表性的总人口、总用水量、COD排放量、氨氮排放量4个要素的预测结果相对误差均小于20%;2035年、2050年庐江县水资源承载力量质要素均处于超载状态;从诊断指标中筛选出的量质要素的调控指标依据正交试验进行分阶段定量调控,调控结果显示2035年、2050年庐江县水资源承载力量质要素可达到临界状态。表明WCCPDR-SD模型在区域水资源承载力量质要素的动态预测和定量调控有较好的应用价值。

In order to predict and control the quantity and quality factors of regional water resources carrying capacity quantitatively,the prediction and quantitative control method of water resources carrying county-level capacity based on system dynamics is proposed.Taking Lujiang County in Chaohu Basin as an example,firstly,on the basis of diagnostic indexes of regional water resources carrying capacity quantitative and qualitative elements,a simulation and prediction model of water resources carrying capacity based on system dynamics is constructed.Secondly,the indicators of water resources carrying capacity are inferred from diagnostic indexes,and the dynamic predictive values of water resources carrying capacity qualitative elements are obtained.Secondly,according to the operability and sensitivity of variables,some variables are screened from diagnostic indexes.Finally,based on the forecasting model,the orthogonal experimental method is used to optimize the control index to achieve the purpose of quantitative regulation of the quality factors of regional water resources carrying capacity.The results show that the relative errors of the four factors are less than 20%when selecting the representative total population,total water consumption,COD emissions and ammonia nitrogen emissions.In 2035 and 2050,the quantity and quality factors of water resources carrying capacity in Lujiang County are in overload state.The water quantity and water quality factors selected from the diagnostic indexes are controlled in stages according to orthogonal experiments.The results show that the quantity and quality factors of water resources carrying capacity in Lujiang County reached critical condition in 2035 and 2050,which indicates that WCCPDR-SD model has a good application value in the prediction and quantitative regulation of regional water resources carrying capacity.