基于后悔理论的考虑属性期望的随机多属性决策方法

Stochastic multi-attribute decision making considering attribute aspirations based on regret theory

针对具有三种不同类型属性值,且属性期望以区间值和区间概率共同表达的随机多属性决策问题,提出一种考虑决策者后悔行为的决策分析方法.首先,分别计算不同属性下各方案带来的期望效用.然后,基于后悔理论,分别计算各属性下因未选择理想方案而带来的期望后悔值,并根据属性期望,得出各属性下因未达到或达到属性期望而产生的期望后悔欣喜值.进一步地,计算每个方案的期望综合感知效用值对方案进行排序和择优.最后以一个设备开发方案的选择为例,通过与其它方法的对比以及参数分析验证了所提方法的优越性.

A decision method is proposed,considering the psychological behavior of decision makers,for stochastic multi-attribute decision making problems with three different kinds of attributes whose aspirations are expressed in interval values and interval probability.Firstly,the expected utility value of each alternative of different types is calculated.Secondly,according to regret theory,the expected regret value of each attribute relative to the ideal alternative is computed.Thirdly,the expected regret(rejoice)value of each attribute value is derived for not achieving(being better better than)the provided attribute aspirations.Fourthly,alternatives are ranked and chosen according to their expected comprehensive perceived utility.Finally,the alternative selection of an equipment development project is used as an example to show the advantage of the proposed method,through both comparisons with other methods and parameter analysis.