油价下跌和新冠肺炎疫情下的俄罗斯经济:影响与政策选择

Russian Economy Against the Backdrop of Falling Oil Prices and Coronavirus Epidemic:Implication and Policy Option

为应对疫情,各大经济体纷纷实施大规模的财政、货币和金融政策,"不惜一切代价救市".从政策工具角度来看,有关宏观政策应如何施力、财政政策与货币政策该如何配合才能相得益彰,引起各国政府和学术界高度关注.在油价下跌和疫情的双重打击下,历经西方制裁6年的俄罗斯经济比其他国家困难更大.与美欧日等采取量化宽松和直接派发现金的空前刺激力度相比,俄罗斯在财政支持方面却力度有限,除有针对性的定向扶持外,相当一部分是监管豁免给企业松绑.俄财政金融主管部门明确反对国内自由派经济学家提出的开启量化宽松模式的建议,其原因在于:俄长期的通胀史和高通胀预期使管理层不能用力过猛,货币政策不宜取明显的扩张态势.疫情结束后的世界经济将被全面推向更低的增长轨道,俄政府必须基于应对新型长期衰退的准备来安排资金的使用.疫情之后,俄经济增长将大概率保持低位,很难出现快速反弹,经济要回到疫情之前的水平至少需要3—5年或更长的时间.

To cope with the Covid-19 epidemic,major economies have implemented large-scale fiscal,monetary and financial policies to"rescue the market at all costs".From the perspective of policy tools,the governments and academic circles of all countries have paid close attention to how the macro policies should be applied and how the fiscal and monetary policies should be coordinated to bring out the best in each other.The Russian economy,which has endured six years of western sanctions,has been hit harder than other countries by a combination of falling oil prices and the Covid-19 epidemic.Compared with the unprecedented stimulus measures adopted by the United States,Europe and Japan,such as quantitative easing and direct cash distribution,Russia has limited financial support.In addition to targeted support,a considerable part of it is regulatory exemption for enterprises.The financial authority of Russia clearly opposes the suggestion of domestic liberal economists to start the mode of quantitative easing.The reason is that Russia's long history of inflation and high inflation expectations prevent the government from pushing too hard,and the monetary policy is not suitable for obvious expansion.The post-pandemic world economy will be put on a lower growth trajectory across the board,and the Russian government will have to allocate funds based on its preparedness for a new and prolonged recession.After the epidemic,Russia's economic growth is likely to remain low and it is difficult to rebound quickly.It will take at least 3-5 years or longer for the economy to return to the pre-epidemic level.