2020—2024年俄罗斯与世界形势分析和预测

Analysis and Forecast of the Situation in Russia and the World Between 2020 and 2024

未来5年全球政治和社会发展将聚焦技术革新、气候变化和青年问题,而中美贸易战、地区问题、全球经济刺激政策乏力将是影响世界经济发展的主要因素.俄罗斯未来5年将为2024年选举做准备,并致力经济改革.2020年选举结果可决定美国内外政策的基本走向.2024年前欧盟主要任务是完善社会机制、发展"无国界"教育、议会选举、防范多种族民粹主义.中东将面临与气候变化和水资源有限相关的一系列挑战.后苏联空间因缺乏地区带动力,基本不会形成没有俄罗斯参加的区域经济一体化,中国通过"一带一路"也会加强在该地区影响.亚太地区尽管经济增长明显放缓,仍将是世界经济中最具活力的部分.中国共产党成立100周年纪念是2024年前重大事件.

In the next five years,global political and social development will focus on technological innovation,climate change and youth issues,while the trade war between China and the United States,regional issues and weak global economic stimulus policies will be major factors affecting world economic development.Russia will spend the next five years preparing for elections in 2024 and pursuing economic reform.The outcome of the 2020 election could determine the basic direction of U.S.domestic and foreign policy.By 2024 the EU's main tasks will be to improve social institutions,develop"borderless"education,hold parliamentary elections and guard against multiethnic populism.The Middle East will face a range of challenges related to climate change and limited water resources.Due to the lack of regional driving force in the space of the post-Soviet Union,regional economic integration without the participation of Russia will hardly be formed.China will also strengthen its influence in the region through"One Belt and One Road".The Asia-Pacific region,despite a marked slowdown,will remain the most dynamic part of the world economy.The 100th anniversary of the founding of the communist party of China is a major event before 2024.