基于三参数Burr分布的机头时距分布特性研究

Research on the Time-Headway Distribution Characteristics of Nose Based on Three-Parameter Burr Distribution

机头时距作为空中交通流中的重要参数,对研究航路通行能力具有重要意义。通过对机头时距的统计,发现其分布特征与Burr分布曲线相似,因此采用三参数Burr分布函数来对机头时距分布特征进行描述。以三亚地区某航路上的机头时距数据为例,首先介绍了机头时距数据的统计方法,然后采用三参数Burr分布函数对其拟合,并采用极大似然法和牛顿法对三参数估计求解,最终拟合出空中交通流中机头时距数据的三参数Burr分布的曲线,并对拟合效果进行K-S检验。拟合结果表明,三参数Burr分布能够对机头时距分布特征进行较好的描述,为进一步研究空中交通流特性以及航路通行能力提供了理论依据。

As an important parameter in air traffic flow, the Time-Headway of nose is of great significance to the research of airway capacity. Through the statistics of the Time-Headway of nose, it was found that its distribution features are similar to the Burr distribution function, so the three-parameter Burr distribution function was adopted to describe the Time-Headway distribution features of nose. Taking the Time-Headway data of nose of a certain route in Sanya as an example, firstly, the statistical method of the Time-Headway data of nose was introduced. The three-parameter Burr distribution function was used to fit it, and the three parameters were estimated by the maximum likelihood method. The Newton method was used to solve the measured parameters. Finally, the curve of the three-parameter Burr distribution of the measured Time-Headway data of nose was fitted and verified by the KS test. The fitting results show that the three-parameter Burr distribution curve can better fit the Time-Headway distribution characteristics of nose, which provides a theoretical basis for further study of air traffic flow characteristics and route capacity.