农户尺度的耕地撂荒影响因素及空间分异

Influencing factors and spatial differentiation of cultivated land abandonment at the household scale

现阶段中国的粮食安全问题严峻,耕地是保障粮食安全的基础,耕地撂荒已成为影响粮食安全的土地利用变化现象。本文采用中国家庭追踪调查数据,分析2010—2016年承包耕地的农户耕地利用行为的变化影响因素,着重从显性撂荒和隐性撂荒两个角度研究其概率变化及区域差异。研究发现:①农户承包的耕地同时存在显性和隐性撂荒现象,隐性撂荒比例较大,但未来撂荒的现象均将逐渐减少;②一致性方面,种子农药化肥投入、农业补贴政策等对撂荒的抑制作用显著,但其边际效应都将减小;土地征用会促使农户选择撂荒,存在负面的长程作用;③显性和隐性撂荒的影响因素有差异,丘陵地貌区显性撂荒显著,耕地规模化和退耕还林还草补贴能减少农户隐性撂荒的概率;自然灾害发生将会导致显性和隐性撂荒,但自然灾害对显性撂荒影响的边际效用减少,对隐性撂荒影响的边际效应却增加;④在空间差异上,经济发达区域的耕地发生显性撂荒的概率仍较大,粮食主产区继续发生隐性撂荒的概率较大。未来应制定和完善相关土地制度和农业政策,继续加大农业投资和大规模开展土地流转等解决耕地撂荒难题。

At present,China’s food security situation is grim because cultivated land is the basis of food security,but abandoned cultivated land has become a common phenomenon of land use change.This study used the panel data of household survey in China to analyze the change of cultivated land use behavior and influencing factors of farming households that contracted cultivated land from 2010 to 2016,and examined the probability change and regional difference from the perspectives of explicit abandonment and implicit abandonment.The results show that:First,cultivated land contracted by farmers experienced both explicit and implicit abandonments.Implicit abandonment is relatively large,but the phenomenon of abandonment in the future will gradually decrease.Second,in terms of consistency,investment in seeds,pesticides,and fertilizers,and the implementation of agricultural subsidy policies have significant inhibitory effects on land abandonment,but their marginal effects will be reduced.Land expropriation will prompt farmers to choose land abandonment,which has a negative long-term effect.Third,the influencing factors of explicit and implicit abandonments are different.Explicit abandonment is significant in hilly areas.The scale of cultivated land and the strategy of returning the grain plots to forestry and grass can reduce the probability of implicit abandonment for farmers.Natural hazards will cause explicit and implicit land abandonment,the marginal effect of natural hazards on explicit abandonment will be reduced,but the marginal effect on implicit abandonment will increase.Last,in terms of spatial differences,it is still possible that the cultivated land in the economically developed areas will experience an explicit abandonment,and the main grain-producing areas may continue to experience an implicit abandonment.In the future,it is necessary to formulate and improve relevant land and agricultural policies,continue to increase agricultural investment,carry out largescale land transfers,and so on in order to solve the problem of farmland abandonment.