城市群视角下中国人口空间分布研究

A Study on Population Spatial Distribution in China from the Perspective of Urban Agglomeration

应用2000年、2005年、2010年和2015年全国人口普查和统计年鉴数据,采用重心分析和空间自相关分析等方法从城市群视角对2000—2015年15年间我国人口空间分布的演变过程进行研究。结果表明:城市群的人口规模和增长速度远远大于非城市群,并且绝大多数高人口密度城市均被纳入城市群范围,表明城市群始终是我国人口空间集聚的核心区域;2000—2015年之间城市群与非城市群的人口重心向相反的方向移动,城市群人口城镇化发展速度明显快于非城市群,城市群吸纳人口的趋势更加明显;由于处于不同的经济社会发展水平和发展阶段,城市群内城市的人口空间分布类型更加多样和碎片化,整体的人口空间自相关程度远低于非城市群;19个主要城市群之间的人口规模及其增长速度差异巨大,东部发达地区城市群人口持续快速增加,而中西部和东北地区城市群的人口比重在不断降低,极化效应的存在使得城市群之间的人口规模差异有进一步扩大的趋势。

Based on the census data and the statistics data from 2000、2005、2010 and 2015,this paper employs the mean center and spatial autocorrelation analysis methods to investigate the change process of population spatial distribution in China over 2000 to 2015 from the perspective of urban agglomeration.The results show that:1)The population size and growth rate of urban agglomeration are much larger than those of non-urban agglomeration,and most of the cities with high population density are included in the urban agglomeration,indicating that urban agglomeration is always the core area of population spatial agglomeration in China.2)From 2000 to 2015,the population mean center of urban agglomeration and non-urban agglomeration moves in the opposite direction,and the urbanization development of urban agglomeration is obviously faster than that of non-urban agglomeration,which shows an obvious trend that urban agglomeration is attracting more people to flow in.3)Because of the different levels and stages of economic and social development,the population spatial distribution types in urban agglomeration are more diverse and fragmented.The population spatial autocorrelation degree of urban agglomeration is much lower than that of non-urban agglomeration.4)There are great differences in population size and growth rate among the 19 urban agglomerations.The population of urban agglomerations in the eastern developed areas continues to increase rapidly,while the proportion of population in the central,western and northeast urban agglomerations is decreasing.The existence of polarization effect makes the difference of population size between urban agglomerations have a further expanding trend.