生肖文化影响生育吗?——来自羊年出生率的经验证据

Does Zodiac Culture Influence Fertility?:Based on Evidence from Birthrate of Goat Year

选取中国1980—2015年内地31个省级面板数据,运用动态面板模型,探究中国羊年生肖文化对生育的影响及区域差异。根据发展范式和代际影响效应理论框架,结合中国历史背景和地理特征,经验研究发现羊年对全国的出生率有显著的负面影响,尤其在东北地区、北方地区和南方地区,西部地区羊年对出生率的负面影响不显著;羊年前一年马年的出生率显著增加;高教育水平、高收入水平和低避孕率在一定程度上可以缓解羊年对出生率的负面冲击;最后使用自体抽样法(Bootstrap)分析了中国不同地区人口出生率的差异。通过考察历史文化背景,比较少数民族人口占比,得出西部少数民族地区的民族和文化多样性、宽松的计划生育政策是羊年对西部地区出生率影响不显著的重要原因。

Selecting 31 provinces dynamic panel data from 1980 to 2015,this paper applies dynamic panel data model to explore the impact of Chinese goat zodiac culture on birthrate and the regional difference.According to the framework of“developmental idealism”and“intergenerational transition effect”,considering Chinese special history and geography,the paper proposes that the years of goat really cause a negative effect on the birthrate in China especially in the northeast,the north and the south.The goat culture does not obviously affect birthrate in the west.In the horse year before goat year,the birthrate increases obviously.The high education,high income and low contraception rate would offset some negative effects from goat zodiac on birthrate.Finally,the paper uses Bootstrap method to analyze the differences of birthrate in regions.Through observing the history and culture,comparing the population proportion of minority,the result shows that the special national minority culture and national culture diversity,an easy family planning policy in west region may be the important reasons for the goat years not affecting the birthrate obviously.