环境规制、技术创新与就业增长的内在联系——基于中国34个细分工业行业PVAR模型的实证检验

The Inherent Relationship between Environmental Regulation,Technological Innovation and Employment Growth:An Empirical Research Based on the PVAR Model of 34 Sub-industrial Industries in China

我国可持续发展面临环境、经济和民生的挑战,正确认识环境规制、技术创新和就业增长三者之间的关系十分必要。从理论层面刻画了环境规制、技术创新和劳动就业之间的影响机制,选取2007—2015年中国34个工业细分行业的面板数据,建立PVAR模型,运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解等分析方法,考察环境规制、技术创新与劳动就业之间的动态关系及其行业异质性。结果表明:环境规制会促进企业的技术创新,对劳动就业存在先抑制后促进的作用,技术创新对劳动就业前期先是负向作用,后期是正向作用。依据污染程度和技术水平划分行业进行比较,发现三者关系存在显著的行业差异:从污染程度来看,技术创新对污染密集行业的冲击更大,加快污染密集行业的技术升级,对于实现产业升级和稳定就业具有积极作用。从技术水平来看,环境规制对中低技术行业的冲击更大,有必要通过提高中低技术行业的环境规制程度强化其对就业产生的积极作用。因此,需要制定差异化的环境规制政策,实施绿色创新战略,促进就业稳步增长。对于污染密集行业,可以通过技术升级来实现环境治理与就业的平衡,对于中低技术行业,可以通过合理的环境规制来提高企业竞争力,带动产业升级,扩大就业容量。

China’s sustainable development is facing the challenges of environment,economy and people’s livelihood.It is necessary to correctly understand the relationship among environmental regulation,technological innovation and employment growth.This paper describes the impact mechanism among environmental regulation,technological innovation and the employment from the theoretical level.The PVAR model is established with the panel data of 34 industrial sub-sectors in China from 2007 to 2015.The dynamic effects between environmental regulation,technological innovation and the employment are studied by using impulse response function and variance decomposition method.The results show that environmental regulation will promote the technological innovation of enterprises,and with the increase of environmental regulation intensity,the employment will be improved after the deterioration in the initial stage.The technological innovation has a negative effect on the early stage of labor employment,and the positive effect is in the later stage.Comparing the industries according to the degree of pollution and the level of technology,it is found that there are significant industry differences in the relationship among these three.In terms of the degree of pollution,technological innovation has a greater impact on pollution-intensive industries.Accelerating the technological upgrading of pollution-intensive industries has a positive effect on industrial upgrading and stable employment.From the perspective of technical level,the environmental regulation has a greater impact on the low and medium sized technology industries.It can strengthen the positive effect on employment by improving the environmental regulation of low and medium technology industries.Therefore,it is necessary to formulate differentiated environmental regulation policies,implement green innovation strategies,and promote steady growth in employment.For pollution-intensive industries,the balance between environmental governance and employment can be achieved through technological upgrading.For the low and medium technology industries,the competition of enterprises can be improved through reasonable environmental regulation,and then drive industrial upgrading and expand employment capacity.