可预期的外生冲击与中国经济周期

Anticipated Exogenous Shocks and China's Business Cycles

预期是导致宏观经济波动的重要因素,同样的冲击,如果能让各类经济主体在冲击来临之前形成预期,那么冲击对经济的作用效果与各类经济主体没有预期相比可能会截然不同。为了更好地理解可预期的外生冲击对中国经济周期的影响,本文使用Search-Matching模型作为分析框架。相比于传统的DSGE模型,Search-Matching模型考虑了劳动市场摩擦的存在,而这恰好和我国实体经济的就业市场高度吻合。同时,为了能够更加准确地估计模型中的结构参数,本文基于1991—2017年的中国季度宏观经济数据对模型进行了贝叶斯估计,得到了比使用既有文献进行校准拟合度更高的模拟结果。通过脉冲响应分析,我们发现,可预期资本税冲击能够在长期明显缓解税收增加对实体经济的负面影响,同时,可预期资本税冲击也可以在短期缓解资本税增加对实体经济的负面影响。上述结果表明,如果中央政府能够事先促进政策预期形成,并最终实施政策,就能够很好地缓解税收冲击对于经济产生的负面作用。

Expectation is an important factor leading to macroeconomic fluctuations.The impact of shocks on the economy,if the various economic entities can form expectations before the impact,can be very different.In order to better understand the impact of anticipated exogenous shocks on China's business cycle,this paper uses the Search-Matching Model as the analytical framework.Compared with the traditional dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model,the Search-Matching model includes labor market frictions,fitting the employment market in China.At the same time,in order to better estimate the structural parameters in the model,this paper makes Bayesian estimation based on the Chinese quarterly macroeconomic data from 1991 to 2017,and obtains a higher degree of fit than by using the calibration results from existing literature.Through impulse response analysis,we find that the expected wage tax shock can significantly mitigate the negative impact of tax increases on the real economy in the long run.At the same time,the anticipated capital tax shock can also promote the economic cycle in the anticipated stage.The above results show that if the central government can promote the formation of policy expectations and finally implement the policy,it will be very conducive to revitalizing the real economy.