官员流动、地区间关联与省际贸易往来

Official Mobility,Interregional Connections and Interprovincial Trade Flows

地方官员在职业生涯中的流动轨迹形成了一种地区间的关系网络,对地区间贸易往来具有重要影响。本文基于1995—2016年地级市层面市委书记的个人履历信息,构造了测度地区间关联的多种指标,在结构引力模型的框架下识别了官员流动对省际贸易的影响。研究发现,官员流动过程中形成的地区间关联显著促进了从官员当前任职地到其出生地和上一任职地的贸易流出,但对于相反方向上当前任职地的贸易流入却没有显著影响,这一结论在多种稳健性检验中依然成立。进一步分析显示,随着对外开放程度的提高,官员流动对关联地区间贸易往来的促进效应将会下降。这些结果表明,地方官员在干部人事管理的正式制度下,仍然会利用非正式的关系网络,在省际贸易中采取策略性的行为。

The flow of local officials in their career path has given rise to a network of inter-regional relationships that have an important impact on the trade between regions.Based on the resume information of the secretaries of the CPC municipal committees of the prefecture-level cities from 1995 to 2016,this paper uses a variety of indicators to study the connections between regions.Under the framework of the structural gravity model,the influence of official mobility on inter-provincial trade is identified.The study found that the inter-regional connections significantly promoted the trade outflow from the place of current position of the official to the place of his birth and the place of his previous position,but did not have a significant impact on the trade inflow into the place of his current position.This conclusion is still true in various robustness tests.Further analysis shows that as the degree of opening up increases,the promotion effect of official mobility on the trade between related regions will decline.These results show that local officials,under the current personnel management system,still use informal networks of relationships to take strategic actions in inter-provincial trade.