政策不确定性、企业金融化与实体经营投资

Policy Uncertainty,Financialization of Enterprises and Investment in Entity Business

近年来,我国经济发展逐渐呈现金融化态势,在微观层面上,中国企业对金融投资与实体经营投资的行为选择上受到了广泛关注。本文运用沪深A股市场2007年第一季度至2018年第三季度期间的非金融企业季度数据,对政策不确定性、企业金融化程度与实体经营投资之间的关系进行了理论与实证探究。研究结果表明:政策不确定性的上升会抑制企业的金融化程度;企业金融化程度与实体经营投资呈反向变动关系,金融化程度的上升会对实体经营投资产生挤出作用;二者之间的反向作用在政策不确定性高时更加显著。本文研究结论有助于引导企业衡量自身金融投资与实体经营投资的合理配置发展,在金融化环境下为政府制定经济政策提供一定的借鉴。

In recent years,China's economic development has gradually shown a trend of“financialization”.At the micro level,the choice of Chinese enterprises on financial investment or entity business investment has received extensive attention.Based on the quarterly data of non-financial enterprises in A-share market from the first quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of 2018,theoretical analysis and empirical research on the relationship among policy uncertainty,financialization of enterprises and entity business investment are made.The results show that the increase in policy uncertainty will restrain financialization of enterprises.For enterprises,the degree of financialization is negatively correlated with the investment in entity business.With the rising degree of financialization,the investment in entity business will be reduced.The inverse effect is even more significant when the level of policy uncertainty is high.The conclusion is helpful to guide enterprises to balance the asset allocation between financial investment and investment in entity business.And it is also conducive to the government's formulation of economic policies in the financialized environment.