中国对“一带一路”沿线国家制造业出口影响因素研究

Influencing Factors of China's Manufacturing Exports to Countries along“Belt and Road”

随着“一带一路”倡议的持续推进,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易往来愈发频繁和重要。本文基于CMS模型和贸易引力模型,通过中国对“一带一路”沿线国家制造业的出口数据,深入考察了中国对“一带一路”沿线国家制造业出口的主要影响因素。研究结果表明,“一带一路”沿线国家的进口需求是刺激双方经贸规模提升的重要因素。进口国的贸易依存度、共同边界对中国制造业出口亦有显著的正向作用,而双方的距离、进口国的关税水平则会阻碍中国制造业对其出口。通过测算中国对“一带一路”沿线国家制造业出口潜力发现,中国对越南、泰国、俄罗斯、印度以及大部分中东欧国家仍有巨大的出口潜力。本文旨在为“一带一路”倡议下经贸网络构建和分工合作效率的提升提供一定经验借鉴。

With the continuous development of the Belt?and?Road?Initiative,China's trade with the countries along“Belt and Road”has become more frequent and important.Based on the constant market share(CMS)model and the trade gravity model,the main influencing factors of China's manufacturing exports to the countries along“Belt and Road”are deeply investigated through the related data.The research results show that the import demand of the countries along“Belt and Road”is an important factor to stimulate the trade scale of both sides.The trade dependence of importing countries,and the common border also have significantly positive effects on China's manufacturing exports,while the distance between the two sides,and the tariff level of importing countries will hinder the exports.Further,the measurement of China's manufacturing export potential to countries along“Belt and Road”reveals that China still has great export potential to Vietnam,Thailand,Russia,India and most Central and Eastern European countries.This paper aims to provide reference for the construction of trade network of the Belt?and?Road?Initiative and for the improvement of the efficiency of labor division and cooperation.