经济发展、空气污染与呼吸系统疾病负担的交互影响

Interactions among economic development,air pollution and the burden of respiratory diseases

目的探讨经济发展、空气污染与呼吸系统疾病负担之间的动态影响,为我国经济发展与居民健康水平的改善提供策略依据。方法利用《中国统计年鉴》与全球疾病负担数据库数据,对1990-2017年呼吸系统疾病负担进行了描述性统计分析,对数据进行因子分析提取共同因子后,基于共同因子建立因子增广的向量自回归(FAVAR)模型。由于可获得反映经济发展情况与空气污染状况的时序变量数据区间为2003-2017年,因此构建的FAVAR模型的样本数据期间为2003-2017年,考察经济发展、空气污染与呼吸系统疾病负担的动态交互影响。采用Stata 13与EVIEWS 8.0软件进行数据计算。结果我国气管、支气管和肺部癌症的伤残调整寿命年(DALYs)从1990年的502.3万人年增长到2017年的1234.2万人年;哮喘、慢性阻塞性肺疾病与慢性呼吸道疾病DALYs呈下降趋势。进行因子的分析提取,结果显示,经济因子、污染因子和疾病因子对各自变量具有良好的解释作用。经济因子是污染因子与疾病因子的格兰杰原因,污染因子是疾病因子的格兰杰原因。经济因子对污染因子的冲击较为波动,1~6期冲击较小,7~8期为负向冲击,而8期后经济因子增长会对污染因子具有正向冲击。而经济因子对疾病因子在9期后有较大的正向冲击。污染因子在1~7期对疾病因子冲击较小,8~9期后对疾病因子具有负冲击,9期后有正向冲击。结论政府需有效转变经济发展方式,推动经济和环境的协调发展,在发展经济的同时降低污染,最终提高人民的健康水平。

Objective To explore the interactions among economic development,air pollution and the burden of respiratory diseases,and to provide the strategic basis for the improvement of Chinese economic development and health level.Methods The data from China Statistical Yearbook and the Global Burden of Disease Database were used to make descriptive statistical analysis of the burden of respiratory diseases from 1990 to 2017,the common factors were extracted by factor analysis,then the factor augmentated vector autoregression(FAVAR)model was established on the basis of common factors.The duration of sample data for FAVAR model was from 2003 to 2017 because the time series variable data interval of obtained economic development and air pollution was from 2003 to 2017,the interactions among economic development,air pollution and the burden of respiratory diseases were investigated.The used software was Stata 13 and EVIEWS 8.0.Results Disability adjusted life years(DALYs)of trachea,bronchus and lung cancers in China increased from 5023 thousand person years in 1990 to 12342 thousand person years in 2017;the DALYs of asthma,chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)and chronic respiratory disease showed the decreased trend.After extracting factors,the results showed that economic factors,pollution factors and disease factors could explain the effects of independent variables,respectively;the economic factors were the Granger cause of pollution factor and disease factors;the pollution factors were the Granger cause of disease factors.The impact of economic factors on pollution factors was more undulant,the impact in the 1 st-6 th stages was small,the impact in the 7 th-8 th stages was minus,the impact after the8 th stage was positive.The impact of economic factors on disease factors after the 9 th stage was much positive.The impact of pollution factors on disease factors in the 1 st-7 th stages was small,the impact of pollution factors on disease factors in the 8 th-9 th stages was minus,the impact of pollution factors on disease factors after 9 th stages was positive.Conclusion The government should change effectively the model of economic development to promote the coordinated development of the economy and the environment,reducing pollution while developing the economy,and ultimately improving the people health.