中国空间城镇化水平测度及其影响因素分析——基于省级地理加权回归模型的证据

An Analysis of China’s Spatial Urbanization Level and Its Influencing Factors:Based on Geographically Weighted Regression Model of Chinese Provinces

城镇化进程应当是空间城镇化与人口城镇化的统一,当前的实践和研究多偏重人口结构而忽视空间结构,与建立在单一户籍测度指标上的人口城镇化不同,空间城镇化要求从农村属性的管理空间向城市属性转变。通过分析2002-2017年我国各个省份空间城镇化水平的时空演变特征及其影响因素发现,我国总体空间城镇化速度滞后于人口城镇化,较低的空间城镇化水平已成为制约我国城镇化质量的重要因素。根据空间与人口城镇化的匹配程度,目前我国城镇化的区域类型分为失调型、匹配型和异常型,区域的空间城镇化存在明显差异。研究表明,产业多样性、市场潜能、财政收入对于提高空间城镇化水平具有正向作用,而人口城镇化速度、区域土地价格以及内部经济差距则具有负面效应。未来应坚持人口城镇化与空间城镇化的协调推动,探索新的健康经济发展模式为空间城镇化发展提供支撑。

Urbanization means the unity of spatial and population urbanization.However current practices and studies focus much more on population structure than spatial structure.Different from the urbanization based on the index of a single household registration,spatial urbanization requires the management to change from rural to urban attribute.By analyzing the temporal-spatial evolution characteristics and the influencing factors in the spatial urbanization levels of Chinese provinces from 2002 to 2017,it is found that the overall speed of spatial urbanization in China lags far behind the population urbanization,which has been an important factor in constraining the urbanization of China.According to the matching degree of spatial and population urbanization,Chinese urbanization in various regions is divided into disordered,matching and unusual types and spatial urbanization in different regions has obvious differences.The research also demonstrates that industrial diversity,market potential and fiscal revenue play a positive role in promoting the spatial urbanization level while the speed of population urbanization,land prices in different regions and the gap of internal economy have a negative effect.