基于事件链的网络舆情事件演化研究

Research on Evolution of Public Opinion in the Network Based on Chain of Events

[目的/意义]网络舆情具有的演化路径不明确、演化态势复杂等特点,致使决策主体在应急管理中很难做出科学应对。[方法/过程]文章首先定义了网络舆情事件链的节点描述方式、节点状态概率以及节点演化概率,并给出网络舆情事件链的构建过程;然后在实证中构建了面向消费者维权的网络舆情事件链,实现了该类网络舆情的关键情景推演;最后结合"奔驰维权"案例,证明文中方法的有效性和可行性。[结果/结论]文中方法可以有效预测消费者维权类网络舆情的发展态势,为网络环境下该类网络舆情的应急处置提供决策支持。

[Purpose/significance]The evolution path of public opinion in network is not clear and the evolution situation of public opinion in the network is complex,which makes it difficult for decision-makers to make a scientific response in emergency management.[Method/process]Firstly,we define the node description method,node state probability and node evolution probability of chain of events about public opinion in the network,and design its construction process.Then,we construct a chain of events oriented to consumer rights defense in the experiment,and realize the key scenario deduction of this kind of public opinion in the network.Finally,the validity and feasibility of the method in this paper are proved by the case of"Protection of Rights about Mercedes-Benz in China".[Result/conclusion]The method in this paper can effectively predict the development trend of public opinion of consumer rights defense in the network,and provide support for the emergency management.