分析师推荐评级与股价崩盘风险——基于期望违背压力视角的思考

Analyst Recommendation and Stock Price Crash Risk:Thinking from the Perspective of Expectation Violation Pressure

分析师推荐一定能给企业带来积极的股价表现吗?基于2007-2018年A股上市公司数据,本文通过探讨分析师推荐评级对企业股价崩盘风险的影响发现,较高的分析师推荐评级加剧了企业股价崩盘风险;不仅如此,当企业实际完成绩效与分析师预测绩效之间的落差越大或者企业受媒体的关注度越高时,分析师推荐评级对股价崩盘风险的正向作用越强。本文采用期望违背理论对上述关系机制进行剖析,研究表明:企业较高的分析师推荐评级也会伴随着更高的市场风险。

Will analyst recommendations necessarily bring positive stock price performance?Based on the data of A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2018,the results show that the higher the analyst recommendation rating,the greater the risk of a company’s stock price crash.Besides,the greater the gap between the actual performance of an enterprise and the analyst’s predicted performance,or the greater the media attention an enterprise receives,the stronger the positive effect of the analyst’s recommendation rating on the risk of stock price crash.We discuss the impact of analyst recommendation rating on the stock price crash risk from the perspective of expectation violation.Our research shows that higher analyst recommendation rating of an enterprise will be accompanied by higher market risk.