独立以来印度公共债务可持续性实证研究

An Empirical Study on Sustainability of Public Debt in India since Its Independence

在全球债务持续攀升、经济运行风险日趋加大的背景下,采用动态债务方程对独立以来印度总体公共债务和外债的可持续性进行研究。结果表明,无论是总体债务还是外债,印度债务的可持续性欠佳。对印度来说,政府加强短期和中长期债务管理已刻不容缓;对中国政府而言,借鉴印度债务管理经验或教训是非常必要的;在"一带一路"背景下,赴印投资的中资企业应在项目选择、财务管理、风险压力测试和预警等方面做好债务风险的防范。

A dynamic debt equation was used by this paper to study the sustainability of India s overall public debt and external debt since independence.The research findings suggested that the sustainability for both overall and external debt for India are poor.India government is suggested to strengthen short-term and medium-term debt management.The Chinese government need to learn from India s experience or lessons in debt management.In addition,Chinese enterprises investing in India need to be cautious about debt risks.