医疗卫生支出与经济增长--基于医疗保障制度调节效应的实证研究

The Health Expenditure and Economic Growth--An Empirical Analysis Based on Regulating Effect of Medical Insurance System

本文结合新古典增长理论和内生增长理论,引入医疗保障制度因素,分析了医疗卫生支出对经济增长的影响机理。同时,文章还收集了包括OECD组织国在内共40个国家2000-2017年的面板数据,采用固定效应模型和系统GMM模型,实证分析了医疗卫生支出对经济增长的影响,以及不同类型的医疗保障制度在其中起到的作用,证实了理论模型的有效性。研究认为,医疗卫生支出会对经济增长产生负向作用,医保制度覆盖率的提高有助于抑制这种负向影响,其中公共医疗保障制度主要抑制了医疗卫生支出对短期经济增长的不利影响,而商业健康保险制度则显著抑制了医疗卫生支出对长期经济增长的不利影响。通过中介效应和机制检验的进一步分析表明,两种制度对医疗卫生支出经济增长效应的影响主要是通过物质资本积累和人力资本积累来实现。

This paper analyzes the influence mechanism of health expenditure on economic growth through introducing the factors of medical security system and combining neoclassical growth theory and endogenous growth theory.And we also collects panel data for 2000 to 2017 from 40 countries including OECD countries,then empirically analyzing the impact of health expenditure on economic growth as well as the role of different types of medical security system and confirming the validity of the theoretical model through using fixed effect model and systematic GMM model.The research shows that health expenditure has a negative effect on economic growth and the improvement of the coverage of the medical insurance system helps to suppress such negative influence,which the public medical security system mainly restrains the negative impact of health expenditure on short-term economic growth while the commercial health insurance system significantly restrains the negative impact of health expenditure on long-term economic growth.And by further analysising the mediate effect and mechanism test,it shows that the influence of the two systems on the economic growth effect of health expenditure is mainly realized through the accumulation of physical capital and human capital.