基于SD-BC方法的郑州市水安全量化研究

Quantitative Research on Water Security in Zhengzhou City Based on SD-BC Theory

随着经济社会快速发展,许多城市水资源供需矛盾日益尖锐,并引发严峻的水安全问题。以郑州市为研究对象,开展郑州市水安全量化研究。首先,在对城市水安全影响因素分析的基础上,通过供-用-耗-排水等人事活动将社会、经济、生态环境等子系统有机联系起来描绘水安全系统,进而构建了城市水安全系统框架体系;其次,将系统动力学方法(System Dynamic,SD)与反馈机制(Backcasting,BC)相结合,建立了耦合水资源系统、社会经济系统和生态环境系统的水安全系统的SD-BC仿真模型;最后,根据郑州市水资源条件与城市社会经济发展的情况,以2014年为基准年对2015-2025年的水安全系统状况进行模拟预测,并评价郑州市水安全度大小,提出水安全保障措施建议,为优化配置水资源、保障城市水安全提供理论依据。

With the rapid development of economy and society,the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in many cities has become more and more acute,which leads to severe water security hazards.Taking Zhengzhou city as the research object,this paper carries out a quantitative study on water security in Zhengzhou as follows.First,based on the analysis of the influencing factors of urban water security,it describes the water security system by organically linking the subsystems of society,economy and ecological environment through human activities such as supply,use,consumption and drainage,so as to construct the framework of urban water security system.Secondly,it establishes a SD-BC simulation model of water security system coupled with water resources system,socio-economic system and ecological environment system by combining system dynamic(SD)method with backcasting(BC).Finally,according to the water resources conditions and urban social and economic development of Zhengzhou city,it takes 2014 as the base year to simulate and predict the water security system from 2015 to 2025,evaluate the water security degree of Zhengzhou city,and put forward suggestions on water security measures,which provide theoretical basis for optimizing the allocation of water resources and ensuring urban water security.