我国铁路行车事故指数构建方法研究

Research on Construction Method for Train Operation Accident Index in China

建立一种新的铁路运输系统安全评价方法,通过测量铁路行车事故的发生频率及后果严重程度,建立评估铁路行车事故指数,用于评估我国铁路安全的总体状况。利用构建的铁路行车事故指数计算模型及相关数据,开展典型年份全国高速铁路行车事故指数试算,分析评估全国高速铁路的安全状况。结果显示,除个别年份外,2011-2016年高速铁路行车事故指数持续下降,我国高速铁路安全水平正在稳步提升。运用铁路行车事故指数评估我国铁路安全的总体状况,可对铁路安全风险进行宏观的、动态的监测,对铁路行车安全的发展趋势进行预警,促进铁路安全水平的提升。

This paper describes a new method for railway transport system safety evaluation.The train operation accident index is established and evaluated by measuring the frequency of train operation accident and severity of the consequences,to evaluate the overall condition of railway safety in China.Trial calculation of train operation accident index on high-speed railways across China in typical years is conducted based on the calculating model of railway operation accident index provided in this paper and relevant data,to analyze and evaluate the safety condition of high-speed railways across China.Results show that except for a few years,train operation accident index of highspeed railways successively declines in 2011-2016,which indicates that the safety level of high-speed railways in China is being steadily improved.Evaluating overall condition of railway safety in China by using train operation accident index serves as the basis for macro and dynamic monitoring on railway safety risks and the early warning for the development trend of train operation safety,and improves railway safety.