新冠肺炎疫情与宏观经济波动:基于DSGE模型的分析及启示

COVID-19 Epidemic and Macroeconomic Fluctuation:DSGE Model-based Analysis and Enlightenment

文章在新凯恩斯DSGE模型中引入新冠肺炎疫情冲击,系统分析了新冠肺炎疫情对中国宏观经济运行的影响,并进一步引入财政支出政策以探讨新冠肺炎疫情冲击下财政支出的政策效应。动态数值模拟分析结果表明:疫情的影响是阶段性的,以短期冲击为主,长期效应不显著;新冠肺炎疫情冲击下整体需求萎缩,主要表现为消费和投资需求收紧,并伴随着通货膨胀和失业水平的上涨压力;在新冠肺炎疫情冲击下,政府增加投资性支出和转移性支出均可以从一定程度上改善消费需求不足的状况,同时缓解就业压力并提升产出,但两类工具均存在一定的"负效应",若两种政策搭配使用则可以缓解通货膨胀压力和对社会投资的挤出,更好地实现宏观调控预期。

This paper introduces the COVID-19 epidemic situation shock into the New Keynes DSGE model to systematically analyze the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on China’s macroeconomic operation,and further brings in fiscal expenditure policy to explore the policy effects of fiscal expenditure under the impact of COVID-19 epidemic.The results of dynamic numerical simulation show that the impact of the epidemic is periodical,with short-term shocks dominant,and long-term effect is insignificant;overall demand shrinks under the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak,which is mainly manifested in the tightening of consumption and investment demand,accompanied by the rising pressure of inflation and unemployment;under the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic,the government’s increased investment expenditure and transfer expenditure can improve the situation of insufficient consumer demand to a certain extent,simultaneously alleviating employment pressure and increasing output,but both the two types of tools have a certain"negative effect".If the two policies are used together,the inflationary pressure can be alleviated and the expectation of macro-control can be better realized.