新型数字基础设施如何影响对外贸易升级--来自中国地级及以上城市的经验证据

How the New Digital Infrastructure Affects the Upgrading of Foreign Trade:Evidence from Chinese Cities

随着新一轮科技革命和产业变革的加速演进,新型数字基础设施会给对外贸易升级带来更加突出的影响。本文从技术扩散视角出发,在贸易环节、竞争条件与要素流动的三维分析框架下阐释了新型数字基础设施影响对外贸易升级的理论机理,并基于2004-2016年中国283个地级及以上城市的面板数据进行实证检验。研究结果表明:第一,相对于互联网应用水平而言,新型数字基础设施在推动对外贸易升级过程中具有更为明显的促进作用,并且该结果在经过一系列内生性处理之后依然成立。第二,新型数字基础设施的建设与完善能够通过技术扩散效应推动对外贸易升级,尤其是在贸易环节的组织与要素流动的加速两个方面更为突出。第三,新型数字基础设施对对外贸易升级存在正向的空间溢出效应,并且在长期新型数字基础设施对本城市对外贸易升级的影响具有显著的正向促进作用。第四,上述影响存在一定的时间差异和城市异质性,尤其是2012年以后这一正向作用得到明显强化,且随着人力资本水平的提高这一正向激励也更为显著。

With the new round of technological revolution and the accelerated evolution of industrial development,the new digital infrastructure will have a more prominent impact on the upgrading of foreign trade.From the perspective of technology diffusion,this article explains the theoretical mechanism of the impact of new digital infrastructure on the upgrading of foreign trade in the three-dimensional analysis framework of trade links,competition conditions and factor flows.We empirically examine a panel data on 283 prefectures in China from 2004 to 2016 and find the following results.First,compared with the level of Internet applications,new digital infrastructure has a more significant role in promoting the upgrading of foreign trade,and the result is still valid after a series treatment on endogeneity issues Second,the construction and improvement of new digital infrastructure can promote the upgrading of foreign trade through the technology diffusion effect,especially in the two aspects of the organization of trade links and the acceleration of factor flows.Third,the new digital infrastructure has a positive space spillover effect on the upgrading of foreign trade,and in the long term,the new digital infrastructure has a significant positive effect on the city’s foreign trade upgrading.Fourth,there is a certain time difference and urban heterogeneity in the above impacts.Especially after 2012,this positive effect has been significantly strengthened,and this positive incentive has been more significant as the level of human capital increases.