农业劳动力老龄化对粮食绿色全要素生产率变动的影响研究

The effect of the aging of agricultural labor force on the change of grain green total factor productivity

本文利用1991-2016年27个省(区)的粮食生产投入产出数据,在运用单元调查评估法测算各省份粮食生产污染排放量的基础上,采用Global-Malmquist-Luenberger(GML)指数与方向性距离函数测度了各省粮食绿色全要素生产率指数,并运用面板数据模型实证分析了农业劳动力老龄化对粮食绿色全要素生产率变动的影响。结果表明:1)全国大部分省份的粮食绿色全要素生产率在样本期内呈现出逐步增长的趋势,但仍处于一种低效率状态;此外,不同省份之间的粮食绿色全要素生产率变动状况差异也较大,粮食主产区的粮食绿色全要素生产率表现状况整体优于主销区和产销平衡区。2)农业劳动力老龄化与我国粮食绿色全要素生产率变动之间呈现出显著的"U型"关系,即伴随着农业劳动力老龄化程度的加深,粮食绿色全要素生产率存在先降后增的趋势,并且这种关系在粮食主产区、粮食主销区和产销平衡区均较为稳定。3)工资性收入比重以及受灾率的增高对粮食绿色全要素生产率变动均具有负向影响,而财政支农力度的提高则能够显著促进粮食绿色全要素生产率的增长。

Based on the data of grain production in 27 provinces from 1991 to 2016 and applying the method of Unit Investigation and Evaluation,this paper estimated the pollution emissions of grain production in each province and evaluated the green total factor productivity index(GTFPI)of grain production in each province by the Global Malmquist-Luenberger(GML)index and the Directional Distance Function.In addition,this paper also empirically examined the impacts of the aging of agricultural labors on the GEFPI.Results indicate that:1)The GTFPI in most provinces and regions were increasing gradually during the sample period.But it was still inefficient.In addition,the GTFPIs varied in different provinces and regions.The GTFPIs in main grain producing areas were better than those in the main sales areas and balanced areas;2)There was a significant U-shaped relationship between the aging of agricultural labor force and the GTFPI.That is,with the aging of agricultural labor force,the GTFPI decreased first and then increased.Moreover,further research finds that this relationship was stable in the main grain producing area,the main sales areas and the balanced areas;3)The ratio of salary in farmers’total income and disaster rate had negative effects on the GTFPI.The financial support for agriculture could significantly improve the GTFPI.