人工成本约束下苹果生产环节资本替代劳动的潜力研究

The potential of substituting labors with capitals in apple production under the constraint of increasing labor cost

随着中国果业种植的发展,人工成本对苹果种植的影响和制约日益显现。本文以苹果生产环节为例,利用1998-2017年全国和7个主产省面板数据,将生产要素区分为机械、其他物质、家庭用工和雇工,采用超越对数生产函数法,定量测算苹果生产要素的产出弹性和替代弹性,分析近20年来中国苹果生产环节用工的数量和结构变化,探讨其成因。结果表明:苹果生产用工20年来下降27.15%,但是用工结构发生了显著转变,雇工比重由2.87%大幅上升至28.24%。其他物质和家庭用工的产出弹性均为0.32,是影响苹果增产的核心因素。在资本与劳动替代关系中,机械-家庭用工、机械-雇工总体上呈替代关系,但机械替代劳动效应弱于粮食作物,其他物质-家庭用工呈互补关系,其他物质-雇工呈替代关系并且其替代弹性是机械-雇工的两倍。基于此,提出降低人工成本要进一步挖掘不同种类资本替代劳动的潜力、短期首选是通过增加其他物质投入来推广省力化栽培模式、长期是增加与上述模式相配合的机械投入来提升机械化水平等政策建议。

With the development of fruit production in China,the impacts and constraints of increasing labor cost on the apple industry are increasingly significant.Based on a panel data of seven major apple producing provinces from 1998 to 2017,this paper divided apple production factors into machinery,other materials,household labor and hired labor,and applied the method of beyond logarithm production function to quantitatively measure the output elasticity and substitution elasticity of apple production factors.At the same time,this article also analyzed the changes in the quantity and structure of labor force employed in apple industry in China in the past two decades and explored the main causes.Results show that apple production employment has decreased by 27.15%over the past two decades,but the employment structure has changed significantly,and the proportion of hired labors has increased from 2.87%to 28.24%.The output elasticities of other materials and household labors are both 0.32,which are the core factors affecting apple’s production increase.In the context of capitals substituting labors,machinery-household labors and machinery-hired labors generally have a substitution relationship,but the effect of machinery substitution labors is weaker than that of food crops.Other material-household labors have a complementary relationship.Other material-hired labors are in a substitution relationship and the elasticity of substitution is twice that of machinery-hired labors.Based on the above results,this paper suggests that reducing labor costs should further tap the potential of different types of capital to replace labors,the first choice in the short-term is to promote labor-saving cultivation mode by increasing the input of other materials,and in the long-term,by improving the level of mechanization through increasing the input of machinery that matches the above-mentioned mode.