非洲猪瘟背景下我国猪肉价格上涨的经济效应

The economic impacts of recent pork price increase in China caused by the African swine fever

在非洲猪瘟背景下,为进一步完善恢复猪肉市场供应、保障居民猪肉消费需求、稳定物价水平的政策,以宏观统计数据为基础,采用Nerlove模型等方法研究了猪肉价格上涨分别对猪肉供给、居民猪肉消费以及CPI的影响。研究发现:猪肉价格上涨对猪肉供给有显著的正向影响,短期内猪肉供给反应较迟钝,长期内猪肉供给反应较灵敏;滞后一期猪肉产量、滞后一期鸡肉价格对猪肉供给均有显著正向影响,养殖成本、非洲猪瘟、畜禽养殖禁养区划定对猪肉供给均有显著负向影响;猪肉价格上涨对城乡居民猪肉消费具有消极影响,其中对低收入地区居民和主产区居民猪肉消费影响较大,西北部少数民族地区居民影响较小;猪肉价格上涨对CPI上涨贡献率在34%左右。基于以上结论,提出长期内制定扶持政策稳定猪肉供给,短期内调控肉类供给稳定猪肉价格;相关部门应加强猪肉价格监测和预警工作;当价格过高时可以为低收入消费者和主产区居民适当提供猪肉消费补贴,以及鼓励城乡居民提升牛羊肉、禽肉、蛋类、水产等产品的消费政策建议。

Impacted by the African swine fever,pork price in China has risen.Based on the macro statistic data and the Nerlove model,this paper analyzed the impacts of rising prices on pork supply,household consumption and the CPI in the aim of improving the policies of restoring pork market supply,protecting residents’consumption demand,and stabilizing pork price.Results show that,besides lagged production and lagged chicken price,the rising pork price has a significant positive impact on pork supply which responses relatively slow in the short term and is sensitive in the long run.The African swine fever together with breeding costs and the delimitation of livestock and poultry breeding areas have significant negative impacts on pork supply.Additionally,the rising pork price also has a negative impact on the pork consumption of urban and rural residents,especially the residents in low-income areas and main production areas.While residents in ethnic minority areas in the northwest are less affected.The rise in pork prices contributes to the 34%rise in the CPI.Based on the above conclusions,this paper suggests to formulate support policies in the long term to stabilize hog production,and to regulate meat supply in the short term to stabilize pork prices.In addition,the relevant government agencies should enhance the pork price monitoring and early warning system.When the prices are too high,it is suggested to provide appropriate pork consumption subsidies to low-income consumers and residents in the main producing areas and to encourage urban and rural residents to increase consumption of other meat products.