基于改进三维生态足迹模型的安徽省土地生态承载力评价

Evaluation of Land Carrying Capacity in Anhui Province Based on Revised Three-Dimensional Ecological Footprint Model

三维生态足迹模型作为生态足迹模型最新发展,可在土地承载力评价中发挥重要作用。通过调整账户类型对经典三维生态足迹模型进行了改进,并以安徽省为例,计算了2009-2016年生产性土地生态足迹、土地生态承载力及足迹深度,在判别土地生态承载状态的基础上,对自然资本占用情况进行了分析。结果表明:安徽省土地生态足迹在2009-2016年呈现先增大后减小趋势,其中,耕地和受污染账户影响的林地足迹占比较大,且远高于草地足迹。土地足迹及其所属的各地类足迹均高于土地承载力,处于超载状态。足迹深度变化于2.1~2.6,表明土地自然资本流量不足导致资本存量大量消耗已成为安徽省当前经济社会发展的常态,并根据分析结果提出土地承载力提升建议。

As the latest development of ecological footprint model, three-dimensional ecological footprint model can play an important role in the evaluation of land carrying capacity. The classical three-dimensional ecological footprint model was revised by adjusting the account type. Anhui Province was taken as an example. We calculated the productive land footprint, the land carrying capacity and footprint depth in the period from 2009 to 2016 by using the improved model, and analyzed the natural capital occupancy and its driving forces on the basis of the discriminant of land carrying state. The results showed that the land footprint in Anhui Province from 2009 to 2016 presented the trend of first increase and then decrease, among them, the cultivated land and forest land footprint affected by pollution accounted for larger proportion, and was far above the grass footprint. The footprint of the land and all the types of footprints were higher than the land carrying capacity. The footprint depth varied between 2.1 and 2.6, indicating that the insufficient natural capital flow leaded to the consumption of capital stock and had become the normal state of economic and social development in Anhui Province. The suggestions of land carrying capacity promotion were proposed according to the results of the analysis.