成渝地区双城经济圈一体化增长的溢出效应研究

Research on the Spillover Effect of the Integrated Growth of the Two-city Economic Circle in Chengdu and Chongqing

成渝地区双城经济圈一体化机制构建秉承了中国区域协调发展的系统论顶层设计,能够有效处理成渝地区的发展不平衡不充分问题。首先从充分性和必要性两方面出发为一体化发展提供客观依据;其次以空间中性、空间干预为基础,构建一体化的理论逻辑;最后以成渝地区的14个地级市和成都、重庆两个核心城市为分析对象,进行变量的自相关分析和空间计量模型的实证研究。结论认为成渝地区规模工业、现代服务业布局存在着较为显著的自相关,政府实施的政策对一体化进程的溢出作用并不显著,缺乏统一制度规范,容易陷入“囚徒困境”的境地。以新发展理念构建一体化考核指标,统筹效率和公平,结合成渝地区的实际情况,为地方政府一体化发展提供相应的对策建议。

The Chengdu-Chongqing Two-city Economic Circle,as an important engine for the economic growth of western China,has an integrated mechanism that adheres to the top-level design of the systematic theory of coordinated development in China,and can effectively deal with the imbalanced development of Chengdu-Chongqing.Firstly,it provides objective basis for integrated development from the aspects of sufficiency and necessity;secondly,it constructs the theoretical logic of integration based on space neutrality,space intervention,and the mixture of the two;and finally,14 prefecture-level cities in Chengdu-Chongqing area and two core cities in Chengdu-Chongqing are taken as the analysis objects.The autocorrelation analysis of variables and the empirical study of spatial econometric models.The conclusion is that there is a significant autocorrelation in the layout of large-scale industries and modern service industries in the Chengdu-Chongqing region.The government's implementation of policies does not have a significant spillover effect on the integration process,lacks a unified system and norms,and is liable to fall into the“prisoner's dilemma”.Based on the new development concept,we will build an integrated assessment index,coordinate efficiency and fairness,and provide corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the integrated development of local governments based on the actual situation of Chengdu and Chongqing.