新冠疫情对美国内政外交的影响

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Domestic and Foreign Policies of the US

新冠疫情对美国内政外交各方面都产生了深刻的影响。从美国经济的角度看,2020年3月以来,新冠疫情在美国迅速蔓延,对美国经济造成了重大消极影响。美国金融市场大幅震荡,服务业、航空业以及石油行业受到的影响尤为严重,短期经济增长和长期经济恢复都不乐观。美国的一系列抗疫政策带来全球的财富缩水效应,将会加速全球产业链的重构,甚至拖累全球经济复苏,并可能加剧全球的信贷紧张,增大发展中国家的外债风险。从美国社会的角度看,美国50个州全部进入“重大灾难”状态,新冠肺炎病毒正以各种方式影响着每一个美国人。美国联邦政府被批评对疫情反应迟缓、未能及时采取有效措施进行防控。从美国国内政治的角度看,新冠疫情深刻地影响了美国社会,凸显出美国政治的分裂与极化。在疫情发展的初期,特朗普政府的防疫措施被贴上“政治化”的标签。而在疫情暴发后,美国两党虽然协同出台了防疫法案,但是彼此充满猜忌,党争从未停止。虽然美国启动了紧急状态,但是联邦体制下统一领导的缺失使得防疫效率低下。总体来看,政治化考量颇多、协作化努力不足。疫情的暴发适逢美国大选年,防疫必将和选举政治紧密相连,深刻影响美国政治的未来发展方向。从美国的对外政策看,新冠疫情削弱了美国的软硬实力,冲击了美国在全球治理体系中的领导地位,制约了美国的对外军事行动。美国对外政策的优先方向、对外政策议程的设置以及对外政策的执行能力等,也都不同程度地受到了冲击。新冠疫情还加剧了中美之间的大国竞争,使美欧关系有所淡化,并使日本和韩国等国在当前对美关系的主动权有所增加。美国对外政策出现的新变化值得中国高度关注并做出反应。从对中美关系的影响看,新冠疫情对中美关系产生了较大的负面影响。疫情出现初期,美国政府秉持战略竞争理念,放弃与中国合作的机会,中美关系逐步趋于紧张。随着疫情在全球范围扩散,中美关系受到了进一步冲击,具体体现在病毒的“溯源问题”、疫情之外的双边安全博弈以及美国对华“脱钩”论调的日趋深入。在“后疫情时代”,中美之间的战略竞争将进一步加剧,并集中在政治、经贸、科技和安全四个领域。从危机管理的角度看,美国多年建立和发展的医疗应急管理体系、传染病应急监测技术和电子医疗系统网络等为美国政府抗击疫情提供了强大的体系保障。但受到联邦政府与州政府矛盾、医疗机构官僚化以及特朗普本人执政风格等多个因素的制约,美国政府在抗疫中暴露了大量的问题。

The COVID-19 pandemic is a global public health crisis unseen in a century.Since its outbreak in the United States,the politics,economy and foreign policies of the United States and Sino-US relations have been seriously interrupted.For this,we invite experts from the Institute of American Studies,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,to compose six special comments on the impact of the epidemic on the domestic and foreign policies of the United States from various perspectives.From the perspective of the US economy,the COVID-19 has brought serious impact to the US economy since March 2020.The US financial market has experienced major shocks,with the service sectors,aviation industry,and oil industry being particularly affected.In general,the prospects of short-term economic growth and long-term economic recovery seem discouraged.A series of anti-epidemic policies of the US shrink the global wealth,which would accelerate the reconstruction of the global industrial chain,drag the recovery of global economy,exacerbate the tensions of global credit and increase the external debt risk of developing countries.From the perspective of American society,every US state is now under a major disaster declaration amid coronavirus pandemic.The COVID-19 virus is affecting everyone,in one way or another.The US federal government has been criticized for its slow response to the outbreak of the pandemic and its failure to take timely and effective measures to contain the spread of the virus.From the perspective of American domestic politics,the pandemic has profoundly affected American society,highlighting the division and polarization of American politics.At the beginning of the pandemic,the preventive measures of the Trump administration were labeled as‘politicized’.After the outbreak of the pandemic,the two parties,though having jointly issued the anti-epidemic bill,are full of suspicion and partisan conflicts have never stopped.Although Trump declared a state of emergency,the lack of leadership of the federal government made the anti-coronavirus measures inefficient.Overall,excessive politicized considerations have resulted in insufficient collaborative efforts.Since the outbreak coincides with the year of presidential election,anti-epidemic measures will be intertwined with electoral politics,which will profoundly affect the future of American politics.From the aspect of American foreign policy,the pandemic has weakened the soft and hard power of the United States,challenged the US leadership in the global governance system and restricted its military operations abroad.Meanwhile,the priorities,agenda setting and implementation abilities of the US foreign policies have been affected by the pandemic at different degrees.Besides,the pandemic has also intensified the competition between the US and China,weakened the transatlantic ties and improved Japan and Koreas status in their relations with the US.China needs to pay extensive attention to the recent changes in American foreign policy.From the perspective of Sino-US relations,the pandemic has casted major negative impacts on Sino-US relations.In the early stage of the epidemic,the US government upheld the concept of strategic competition and ignored opportunities to cooperate with China,which drove the bilateral relations on a tight rope.As the epidemic spreads globally,Sino-US tensions have been further intensified by issues of the origins of the virus,the bilateral security competition and the widespread‘decoupling’arguments.In the‘post-epidemic era’,the strategic competition between China and the US will be further aggravated,especially in the areas of politics,economy and trade,science and technology,and security.From the perspective of crisis management,the medical emergency management system,emergency response for infectious diseases,and electronic medical records system established and developed in the United States over the years have provided a reliable system guarantee for the government to combat the epidemic.However,during the fight against the pandemic,severe problems of the government has been exposed due to the constraints of conflicts between the federal government and state governments,of the bureaucratization of the medical institutions,and of Trump s leadership style.