美欧竞争新动向:同盟框架下的博弈与前景

New Developments of US-Europe Relations:Strategic Competitions and Prospects within the Framework of Alliance

国际格局之变错综复杂,美欧关系亦经历深刻调整。尽管美欧整体同盟关系尚未破裂,但在同盟框架下的竞争与博弈日益激烈,主要体现在经济付出与责任之争、安全依赖与自主之争、政治团结与分散之争、规则捍卫与破坏之争。这四组矛盾折射出美欧同盟内竞争的新特征,包括双方维护西方主导经济秩序共识之上的利益争夺、军事同盟基础之上的新“同盟困境”、保持基本政治共识之上的内部政治干预以及大西洋两岸同向思潮之上的不同政策转换效率。美欧竞争与博弈的前景仍存在不确定性,但可能会向三个前景演变。一是中美博弈胶着升级,欧洲继续在中美之间“游走”,与双方构建议题式合作关系;二是中美欧“三足鼎立”,互有合作与制衡;三是美欧联手对华。中国应未雨绸缪,做好对美和对欧工作,积极塑造对三方及世界更有利的中美欧战略关系。

Changes in the international regime have been complex and US-Europe relations have undergone profound adjustments as well.Although the US-Europe alliance has maintained,competitions within the alliance are becoming increasingly fierce.The tensions between the US and Europe are mainly embodied in the four domains of economic interest,security autonomy,political solidarity and rules protection.This four sets of conflicts reflect new features and dynamics of the competition between the two parties respectively,namely the fight over economic interests based on commonly safeguarding the Western-dominated international economic order,the new alliance dilemma of the current military alliance,the internal political interference based on political consensus and the different policy deliveries derived from convergent ideologies of the Trans-Atlantic alliance.The prospects of US-Europe competitions are still full of uncertainties,but they may evolve toward three directions.First,while the China-US competition escalates,Europe builds issue-oriented cooperation between the two sides.Second,China,US and Europe form a triangular balance of power with both cooperation and competition.Third,the US and Europe jointly confront China s rise.China should plan ahead and actively shape the China-US-Europe strategic relations that are more beneficial to the three parties and the world at large.