英国脱欧对北爱尔兰族群问题的影响及其前景分析

An Analysis of the Impact of Brexit on Ethnic Issues in Northern Ireland and its Prospect

英国脱欧带来的影响十分广泛深远,北爱尔兰作为英国的一部分,其边界地位、规则适用、和平进程和族群关系等都将因此面临重要调整和变化。本文以英国脱欧对北爱族群关系的影响为研究对象,分析了英国脱欧对居住于该地区,在民族起源、宗教信仰、政治主张、身份认同和国家归属等方面均呈现出明显差异性和矛盾性的两大族群所产生的重要影响。整体来看,英国脱欧有可能激化北爱两大族群之间的潜在紧张关系,甚至引发两大族群更加激烈的权力争夺和对立冲突,从而导致《贝尔法斯特协议》签署以来逐步形成的北爱和平局势出现较大的不确定性。与此同时,北爱族群问题还将因英国脱欧而产生一系列的溢出性影响,如助长英国国内的民族分离倾向、对其他国家民族分离运动产生示范作用,以及在地区和国际关系层面带来极为广泛的波及效应。

The impact brought about by Brexit is both extensive and far-reaching.As part of the UK,Northern Ireland has to face major adjustment and changes in its boundary and status with the UK,rules application,peace process and ethnic relations after Brexit.This paper,working on the impact wrought by Brexit on ethnic relations in Northern Ireland,has looked into the important impact on the two major ethnic groups living in the region with obvious differences and contradictions in ethnic origin,religion,language,culture,politics,identity and sense of nationhood.On the whole,Brexit is likely to intensify the potential tensions between the two major ethnic groups,and may even trigger more fierce rivalry and contention for power,thus leading to greater uncertainties of the peace process initiated by the Belfast Agreement in Northern Ireland.Meanwhile,ethnic issues in Northern Ireland may produce a series of spillover effects in the wake of Brexit,such as boosting ethnic separatism within the UK,setting an example for national separation movements in other countries,and incurring a broad ripple-effect in regional and international relations.