新旧动能转换下产业升级多维制约因素分析——以山东省为例

Analysis on the Multi-dimensional Restricting Factors of Industrial Upgrading under the Transformation of New and Old Kinetic Energy:A Case Study of Shandong Province

基于平稳性检验、协整关系测度及Granger因果关系分析,结合山东省1988—2017年相关统计数据,实证研究了山东省产业转型升级与市场、政府、社会和科技等多维制约因素的因果关系.分析结果表明,政府干预、公共运输等因素正向促进了产业转型升级,市场化和科技创新等因素促进效果不显著.因此,有针对性地提出了夯实创新基础并保障成果转化,加强市场化建设和建立市场预警机制等对策建议.

Based on stationary test,co-integration relationship measure and Granger causality analysis,this paper empirically studies the causal relationship between industrial transformation and upgrading in Shandong Province and multi-dimensional constraints of market,government,society and science and technology combined with relevant statistical data of Shandong Province from 1988 to 2017.The analysis results show that government intervention,public transportation and other factors are positively promoting the industrial transformation and upgrading,while marketization and scientific and technological innovation and other factors are not significant.Therefore,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to consolidate the innovation foundation and guarantee the transformation of achievements,strengthen the construction of marketization and establish the market early warning mechanism.