摘要
江苏省是我国持续处于低生育率和人口老龄化较早较快的省区,人口红利正在不断减少消退。为促进经济的可持续发展,就必须从结构型“人口红利”转向质量型“健康红利”。构建了测量健康红利的指标体系,基于面板数据对1999—2018年江苏省的健康红利进行了量化评估,并对经济发展水平与健康红利进行了回归分析。研究发现,江苏省的经济发展质量与健康红利水平息息相关,健康红利不仅能改善产业结构,促进第三产业的发展,还能提供高质量的人力资本和健康资本,在一定程度上弥补后人口红利时期的人口老龄化问题。增厚和释放健康红利对于经济可持续发展具有重要意义,提高健康红利水平不仅要加大医疗卫生投入,而且还要制定相关制度,为收获健康红利创造条件。
Jiangsu province is one of the provinces with low fertility rate and fast aging population,and the demographic dividend is decreasing and fading.In order to promote the sustainable development of economy,it is necessary to shift from structural“demographic dividend”to qualitative“health dividend”.The index system for measuring health dividend is constructed.Based on the panel data,the health dividend of Jiangsu Province in 1999-2018 is quantitatively evaluated,and the regression analysis is made on the level of economic development and health dividend.It is found that the quality of economic development in Jiangsu province is closely related to the level of health dividend.Health dividend can not only improve the industrial structure,promote the development of the tertiary industry,but also provide high-quality human capital and health capital,and solve the population aging problem in the post demographic dividend period to some extent.Thickening and releasing health dividend is of great significance to the sustainable development of economy.To improve the level of health dividend,we should not only increase medical and health investment,but also develop relevant systems to create conditions for the harvest of health dividend.
作者
潘金洪
裴善珊
郝仁杰
PAN Jinhong;PEI Shanshan;HAO Renjie(School of Sociology and Population Sciences,Nanjing University of Posts&Telecommunications,Nanjing 210042,China;School of Economics,Nanjing University of Posts&Telecommunications,Nanjing 210042,China)
出处
《人口与社会》
2020年第3期35-48,共14页
Population and Society
基金
2018年江苏省人口发展研究课题“释放健康红利促进江苏省可持续发展”(JJ0472419009)。
关键词
人口红利
健康红利
健康中国
经济可持续发展
多元回归
demographic dividend
health dividend
healthy China
sustainable development of economy
multiple regression