中国建档立卡贫困人口脱贫的影响因素分析——基于河南焦作65760例扶贫样本

Analysis of the Factors Influencing the Poverty Alleviation of the Poor in China——Based on 65760 Poverty Alleviation Samples from Jiaozuo

利用河南省焦作市建档立卡贫困人口数据,对比已脱贫和未脱贫人口的收入差距,并就两类人群在受教育水平、年龄、家庭规模、工作时间、健康状况等方面的差异对他们的收入水平进行分析;使用Probit模型检验了影响人口脱贫的因素,使用OLS分组检验了造成脱贫人口和未脱贫人口收入差距的影响因素。研究结果表明,未脱贫组中的老年人口比重大、受教育水平低、工作时间短、工作区域集中于县域内、因病因残致贫比例大。进一步使用Oaxaca-Blinder分解方法对脱贫、未脱贫两类人群的收入差距进行分解,发现已脱贫和未脱贫组收入差异的75%归因于禀赋回报差异,可解释部分中,家庭规模、工作时间和受教育水平是影响两组人群收入的主要原因。因此,保障家庭劳动力数量以及提升家庭劳动力素质是促进人口脱贫的关键,应增加贫困人口就近就业的机会、为其提供劳务输出的渠道,帮助贫困人口尽快脱贫。

The income gap between poverty-free population and poverty-stricken population is analyzed by using the data of registered impoverished population in Jiaozuo,Henan province.The income levels of the two groups are compared based on differences in education,age,family size,working hours and health conditions.Probit model is used to test the factors affecting poverty alleviation.The OLS grouping is used to test the factors affecting the income gap between the poverty-free group and the poverty-stricken group.The results show that the proportion of the elderly poverty-stricken group is large,the level of education is low,the working time is short,the working area is concentrated in the county,and poverty caused by illness and disability is significant.On this basis,Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition reveals that 75%of income gap is attributed to the difference of gift rewards.In the explanatory part,family size,working hours and education level are the main reasons for the income gap between the two groups.Therefore,guaranteeing the quantity of family labor force and improving the quality of family labor force are the key factors affecting poverty alleviation.We should increase the opportunities for the poor to find jobs nearby and provide them with channels to export labor services so as to help them get out of poverty as soon as possible.