非正规金融、农业技术创新对乡村产业升级的动态影响--基于状态空间模型的计量分析

Research on the Effect of Informal Finance and Agricultural Technology Innovation on Facilitating Rural Industry Upgrading:Quantitative Analysis Based on State Space Model

在乡村振兴战略与产业升级战略正兴之际,采用时变参数状态空间模型,从时间与时点两个维度就1993年以来我国非正规金融、农业技术创新对不同时期乡村产业升级的差异化影响进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:非正规金融显著推动了乡村产业升级,"十一五"规划以来,非正规金融的直接效应稳步增强;农业技术创新是非正规金融促进乡村产业升级的重要中介,占总效应的20%,表现为部分中介效应。据此,文章围绕引导非正规金融参与乡村产业建设和提高农业技术创新研发效率提出政策建议。

At the time when the strategy of rural revitalization and industrial upgrading is in full swing,this paper uses the time-varying parameter state-space model to analyze the differential impact of informal finance and agricultural techno⁃logical innovation on rural industrial upgrading in different periods since 1993 from two dimensions of time period and time point.The results show that informal finance has significantly promoted the upgrading of rural industry,especially since the eleventh five year plan,the direct effect of informal finance has steadily increased;agricultural technology inno⁃vation is an important intermediary for informal finance to promote the upgrading of rural industry,accounting for 20%of the total effect,which is manifested as part of the intermediary effect.Accordingly,this paper puts forward policy sugges⁃tions on guiding informal finance to participate in rural industry construction and improving the efficiency of agricultural technology innovation research and development.