中国城市物流业规模分布的地区差异及动态演进

The Regional Difference and Dynamic Evolution of City Logistics Industry Size Distributions in China

文章采用2001-2017年中国城市物流业相关数据,基于幂律指数测算物流业规模分布,运用Dagum基尼系数与Markov链模型分析物流业规模分布的地区差异及动态演进。研究结果表明:物流业规模分布具有幂律特征,大型城市物流业发展较为充分,中小型城市物流业发展相对落后,但发展速度逐步加快;全国物流业规模分布存在明显地区差异,差异总体呈下降趋势,超变密度对总体差异的贡献率波动上升,成为物流规模分布地区差异的主要来源;中国城市物流业规模分布存在马太效应,低水平与高水平的城市规模分布基本稳定在初始状态。

This paper adopts relevant data of Chinese urban logistics industry from 2001 to 2017,calculates the distribu⁃tion of logistics industry scale based on power law index,and analyzes the regional difference and dynamic evolution of distribution of logistics industry scale with Dagum Gini coefficient and Markov chain model.The results show that the scale distribution of the logistics industry is power-law distribution,the logistics industry in large cities is fully devel⁃oped,and the logistics industry in small and medium-sized cities is relatively backward,but the development speed is gradually accelerated;there are obvious regional differences in the distribution of the scale of the national logistics indus⁃try,and the overall difference shows a shock downward trend.The contribution rate of super variable density to the overall difference fluctuates and rises,becoming the main source of regional disparity;the scale distribution of logistics industry is basically stable at a low level and a high level,but the mobility between each level is poor.