@Risk软件在工程项目不确定性分析和风险分析中的运用

Application of @ Risk Software in Uncertainty Analysis and Risk Analysis of Engineering Projects

基于某新建铜冶炼项目的初步财务模型,运用@Risk软件对其财务内部收益率和净现值的分布情况进行模拟,分析不确定性因素和风险因素对项目经济效益的影响程度,为投资者决策提供参考依据。模拟结果显示,原料供应的风险是影响项目效益的首要因素,其次是铜加工费TC。因此,要实现项目的经济效益,首先应确保原料来源,其他风险因素对财务内部收益率和净现值的影响排序不一致,但比较敏感的风险种类基本相同,决策者可以根据自己期望的目标采取合理的风险应对策略。

Based on the preliminary financial model of a new copper smelting project,@ Risk software was used to simulate the distribution of financial internal rate of return and net present value,and the influence degree of uncertainty and risk factors on the economic benefits of the project was analyzed,which provided reference for investors to make decisions. The simulation results had shown that the risk of raw material supply was the primary factor affecting project benefits,followed by copper treatment charges.Therefore,in order to achieve the economic benefits of the project,the source of raw materials should be ensured firstly. The impact of other risk factors on financial internal rate of return and net present value was inconsistent,but the types of sensitive risks were almost same,decision makers could take reasonable risk coping strategies based on expected goals.