基于GIS的内蒙古自治区肺结核时空分布特征分析

Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region based on geographic information system

目的探究2014—2018年内蒙古自治区(内蒙古)活动性和痰标本涂片阳性(涂阳)肺结核发病的时空分布特征,为其防控提供依据。方法应用ArcGIS 10.2软件,对内蒙古肺结核年均报告发病率(发病率)资料进行地图可视化、三维趋势分析、空间自相关分析、高/低聚类分析、"热点"分析。结果活动性和涂阳肺结核高发病主要位于东部呼伦贝尔市。三维趋势分析显示:活动性和涂阳肺结核发病率均呈现由北向南逐渐升高,由东向西呈现中间低两边高的U形趋势。全局空间自相关分析显示:活动性肺结核(Moran's I=0.099,Z=3.98,P<0.001)和涂阳肺结核(Moran's I=0.148,Z=2.61,P=0.009)发病在整体上均呈空间聚集性。高/低聚类分析显示:活动性肺结核(G=0.104,Z=-2.614,P=0.009)是低值区域聚类,涂阳肺结核(G=0.048,Z=1.779,P=0.075)是高值区域聚类。热点分析显示:活动性肺结核发病"热点"区域主要位于东部呼伦贝尔市、赤峰市和兴安盟;涂阳肺结核发病"热点"主要位于东部呼伦贝尔市、赤峰市、兴安盟和中部锡林郭勒盟。结论 2014—2018年内蒙古活动性和涂阳肺结核发病整体上呈现空间聚集性,东部地区为重点防控地区。

Objective To explore the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of active pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB)and sputum smear-positive(SS+)PTB in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region(briefly as Inner Mongolia)from 2014 to 2018,and to provide a basis for PTB prevention and control.Methods ArcGIS 10.2 software was used to perform cartographic visualization,three-dimensional trend analysis,spatial autocorrelation analysis,high/low clustering analysis and hotspot analysis of data regarding the annual average reported incidence rate(briefly as incidence rate)of PTB in Inner Mongolia.Results Cartographic visualization showed that geographical areas with high incidence of active PTB and SS+PTB were east Hulun Buir.Three dimensional trend analysis revealed that the incidence rates of active PTB and SS+PTB presented a gradual increase from north to south and a U-shape trend from east to west.Global spatial autocorrelation analysis displayed that the incidence of active PTB(Moran’s I=0.099,Z=3.98,P<0.001)and SS+PTB(Moran’s I=0.148,Z=2.61,P=0.009)showed spatial clustering on the whole.High/low clustering analysis demonstrated that active PTB(G=0.104,Z=-2.614,P=0.009)was low-value area clustering,while SS+PTB(G=0.048,Z=1.779,P=0.075)was high-value area clustering.Hotspot analysis displayed that the hotspots of active PTB incidence were concentrated in east Hulun Buir,Chifeng and Xing’an league,while the hotspots of SS+PTB incidence were concentrated in east Hulun Buir,Chifeng,Xing’an league and central Xilingole league.Conclusions The incidence of active PTB and SS+PTB in Inner Mongolia in 2014-2018 showed spatial clustering on the whole,and the east areas were the key points in PTB prevention and control.