基于CLIMEX预测黑角负泥虫在中国的潜在地理分布

Predicting the potential geographical distribution of Oulema melanopu(Coleoptera:Chrysomelidae)in China based on CLIMEX

【目的】研究黑角负泥虫在我国的潜在地理分布及其入侵风险程度。【方法】运用适生性分析软件CLIMEX 4.0对黑角负泥虫在我国的潜在地理分布进行模拟,将模拟结果在地理信息系统软件ArcGIS 10.2下进行插值分析,并绘制黑角负泥虫的潜在地理分布示意图。【结果】黑角负泥虫高度适生区主要集中在我国的华北平原、黄土高原南部及云贵高原北部;中度适生区主要集中在华北平原北部、黄土高原北部及东北平原地区;低度适生区则多分布在中高度适生区的过渡区域及我国新疆天山南北两侧地区。限制黑角负泥虫在我国分布的主要胁迫因素为干胁迫和冷胁迫,且其影响的区域主要分布在我国的西北和东北地区。【结论】黑角负泥虫在我国潜在地理分布范围广,适生程度高。目前,黑角负泥虫已经传播到我国的新疆和内蒙古等省(自治区),但由于地理隔离的存在和自身较弱的扩散条件,并没有传入气候适宜度较高的东部地区。随着东西部经济交流的不断增多,黑角负泥虫随人为因素进一步扩散的可能性将不断增加。因此,建议检疫部门做好检疫工作,严防黑角负泥虫的传播扩散。

【Aim】To investigate the potential geographical distribution and invasion risk of Oulema melanopus in China.【Method】The potential geographical distribution of O.melanopus in China was simulated using the adaptability analysis software CLIMEX 4.0.The simulation results were interpreted and analyzed in ArcGIS 10.2 to map its potential geographical distribution.【Result】The highly invasibility areas of O.melanopus were mainly concentrated in the Huabei Plain,southern Loess Plateau and northern Yungui Plateau in China.The moderately invasibility areas were mainly in the northern North China Plain,northern Loess Plateau and Northeast China Plain.The lowly invasibility areas were located in the transitional area of the highly invasibility areas and in south and north slopes of Tianshan Mountain,Xinjiang,China.Dry and cold temperature stresses were the main factors limiting the distribution of O.melanopus in China.The affected areas were mainly distributed in the northwest and northeast China.【Conclusion】O.melanopus has a wide potential geographical distribution in China,and its invasibility is high.At present,O.melanopus has spread to Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia of China.However,due to the existence of geographical isolation and its weak diffusion,it has not spread into the eastern region with high climate suitability.With the increasing economic exchanges between the east and the west,the possibility of further dispersal of O.melanopus is increasing with human factors.It is recommended that quarantine departments take stricter measures to prevent the spreading of the pest.