基于“一带一路”倡议评估的中国沿海节点港口与港城发展策略研究

Coordinated development strategy of China's coastal node ports and cities based on assessment of Belt and Road

客观评价"一带一路"倡议对沿海节点城市经济发展和港城发展的政策效应,对其本身实施和完善,以及节点地区经济与港城协同发展具有重要意义.本文首先量化中国八个沿海节点地区的港口区位商、辐射强度与港城协同度,以此表征节点地区港口发展水平.在此基础上,利用DID模型评价"一带一路"倡议对沿海节点地区经济发展和港城发展的综合政策效应.为克服内生性和共同趋势假定无法满足等问题,本文进一步采用PSM-DID方法对DID模型结论进行稳健性检验,剔除其他因素影响,观察"一带一路"的净效应.发现城镇化建设目前是沿海节点地区借助"一带一路"发展机遇实现快速发展的短板;虽然"一带一路"倡议对沿海节点地区经济发展推动作用显著,但在剔除共同趋势和冲击等其他因素后,"一带一路"倡议对沿海节点地区经济发展的净影响效应为负.沿海节点地区港口和港城协同发展无论是在综合影响还是剔除其他影响情况下都落后于非节点地区.因此沿海节点地区应以科学发展观为引领,完善港口合作体系,提高港口企业竞争意识,扩大港口辐射范围,加快港口信息化建设,发挥港口对新型城镇化的支撑作用.同时将新型城镇化发展和港口物流发展共同规划,积极调整港、城发展以适应和更好参与到"一带一路"倡议中.

Evaluate the policy effect of the Belt and Road initiative on the economic development of coastal cities and the development of the port and eity objectively is a great significance to its implement and improvement as well as the coordinated development of the regional economy and the port-city.We first quantify the port location quotient,radiation intensity and port-city synergy of the eight coastal node regions in China,in order to represent the development level of ports in the node area.On this basis,we use the DID model to evaluate the comprehensive policy effects of the "Belt and Road" initiative on the economic development and the development of the port-city in coastal areas.In order to overcome the problems of endogeneity and common trend assumptions,we further use the PSM-DID method to test the robustness of the DID model conclusions,and eliminate the influence of other factors to observe the net effect of the "Belt and Road".It is found that urbanization construction is currently a short-board for coastal areas to achieve rapid development with the opportunity of the "Belt and Road";Although the "Belt and Road" initiative has played a significant role in promoting the economic development of coastal nodes,after eliminating other factors such as common trends and shocks,the net impact of the"Belt and Road" initiative on the economic development of coastal nodes is negative.The coordinated development of ports and port-cities in coastal node areas lags behind non-node areas both in terms of comprehensive impact and in the absence of other influences.Therefore,coastal node regions should be guided by the scientific development concept.Improve the port cooperation system,increase the sense of competition among port enterprises,expand the scope of port radiation,accelerate the construction of port information,and enhance the support role of the port for new urbanization.At the same time,the new urbanization development and port logistics development should be jointly planned.Actively adjust port and city development to adapt and better participate in the "Belt and Road" initiative.