产品决策的动态溢出效应研究:来自电视节目的经验证据

Dynamic spillover effect of product decision-making:Evidence from China's satellite TVs

在激烈的市场竞争中,企业一项重要的决策就是在差异化与跟随模仿两种产品策略之间进行抉择.然而,受限于可得数据和研究方法,国内少有与此相关的实证研究.本文搜集主流卫视的节目制播和收视数据,从而构造了单个行业主要企业的细分产品数据库,满足实证研究的数据要求.实证结果显示:主流卫视的产品决策呈现"以我为主、兼顾对手"模式,"以我为主"是指企业历史决策主导了当期决策而表现出极强的惯性特征,"兼顾对手"是指存在相互之间的动态策略互动;该策略互动是一种差异化和模仿兼具的混合策略,行业领先者倾向于差异化,追赶者则倾向于模仿;上述决策模式在不同产品中存在异质性,主打优势产品的决策受对手影响较小,非主打产品受对手影响较大,这在行业追赶者中尤为明显.进一步考察市场竞争格局对于产品收益的影响,研究发现:竞争压力对领先者存在负向挤出效应,而对追赶者呈现正向溢出效应,这与主流卫视收视差距变小的实际情况相符;节目策略越是趋同,整体收视越高,则表明中国观众的收视行为存在羊群效应.

The economics literature contains many theoretical analyses of imitation and differentiation strategies but relatively few empirical studies of these topics due to the limitation of data and methods.This paper conducts empirical research on competitive behavior among three dominant Chinese satellite TVs.It indicates that:1)Program selection decisions of dominant satellite TVs primarily depend on their previous decision,showing decision inertia,which is verified by the fact that shock of each satellite TV's previous decisions best explains its current decision.Meanwhile,there is strategic dynamic interaction between each other,in the form of a mixed strategy with both imitation and differentiation.2)Degree of imitation depends on satellite TVs'competitive positions.Leaders tend to differentiate,while pursuers incline to imitate.3)Satellite TVs'decision patterns show heterogeneity related to program types.A satellite TV's decisions on its representative and advantageous programs are less affected by its competitors,while decisions on other programs suffer greater impacts.And heterogeneity is more obvious in pursuers.Impacts of market structure and degree of imitation on program ratings are further studied.Results indicate that:1)Competitive pressure has negative crowd-out effect on leaders'program ratings,while it has positive spillover effect on pursuers.This finding is consistent with the fact that rating gap between first-class dominant satellite TVs and second-class dominant ones has narrowed.2)Imitation leads to higher program ratings,indicating possible presence of herd behavior among Chinese audience.