基于社会分工的流行病动力学建模与仿真研究

Modeling and Simulation on Dynamics of Epidemic Disease Based on Social Division of Labor

疫情预测是流行病防控体系中的重要一环,准确建立流行病演化动力学模型具有十分重要的意义。针对现有流行病建模方法中鲜有考虑群体中的社会分工问题,拟将整个群体划分为普通居民、社会服务人员和一线医务工作人员等三个子群,基于异质均匀混合理论,利用子群邻接矩阵表示个体间的接触关系,建立了流行病传播与演化的延时动力学模型。仿真结果表明,本文方法更符合实际情况,可为流行病动力学建模与仿真提供一种有效手段,对武汉疫情做了动力学建模与仿真分析。

Prediction is an essential part of the epidemic prevention and control system, and it is of great significance to accurately establish a dynamic model of epidemiological evolution. The existing epidemiological modeling methods rarely consider the social division of labor of different groups. The entire group is divided into three subgroups, the ordinary residents, the social service personnel, and the front-line medical workers. Based on the heterogeneous uniform mixing theory, the subgroup adjacency matrix is used to represent the contact relationship between individuals, and a time-lapse dynamic model of epidemic spread and evolution is established. The simulation results show that this method is in line with the actual situation and can provide an effective method to the modeling and simulation of the epidemiological dynamics. The method carries out the dynamic modeling and simulation analysis of the epidemic situation in Wuhan.