基于赋权法比较的改进云模型应用研究——以汾河二库为例

Comparison of weighting methods-based application study on improved cloud model--A study case of Fenhe Reservoir Ⅱ

针对传统模糊综合评价法具有评价指标权重矢量的确定主观性强、相对隶属度权系数易偏小、不能全面反映水库健康状态等缺陷,本文旨在优化水库健康评价方法,围绕水库健康评价指标体系,应用AHP、EWM、AHP-EWM、AHP-Cloud、AHP-EWM-Cloud共五种赋权方法进行权重分析比较。通过闵式距离确定最佳赋权方法,并以云模型确定隶属度函数,建立基于改进云模型的模糊综合评价模型对汾河二库进行健康评价。AHP-EWM-Cloud法被确定为用于汾河二库工程案例分析的最佳赋权法,水库整体评价等级为健康,但岸坡稳定与水质情况仍需改进。该结果与水库实际情况相符,验证了该方法的合理性与可行性。研究表明:基于AHP-EWM-Cloud法的改进云模型兼顾了数据的客观存在、决策者的主观意识以及模糊性与随机性,为水库健康评价提供了一种可行的新思路。

Aiming at the defects of the conventional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods,i.e.the subjectivity for determining the weight vector of evaluation index is stronger,the relative membership weight coefficient is prone to be smaller,the health state of reservoir cannot be fully reflected,etc.,five weighting methods,namely AHP,EWM,AHP-EWM,AHP-Cloud and AHP-EWM-Cloud are applied to analyze and compare the weights around reservoir health evaluation system herein,so as to optimize the reservoir health evaluation method.Through determining the optimal weighting method with Minkowski Distance and determining the membership function with cloud model,an improved cloud model-based fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established for the health evaluation on Fenhe Reservoir Ⅱ.The method of AHP-EWM-Cloud is determined to be an optimal weighting method for the analysis of the engineering case of Fenhe Reservoir Ⅱ,from which it is determined that the overall evaluation grade is health,but the statuses of the bank slope and the water quality are necessary to be improved.This result is consistent with the actual status of the reservoir,and then the reasonability and feasibility of this method are verified as well.The study shows that the AHP-EWM-Cloud-based improved cloud model gives the consideration of the objective existence of data and the subjective consciousness of decision maker as well as the fuzziness and randomness,thus provides a feasible new idea for reservoir health evaluation.