卫星发射对空间碎片环境影响分析

Analysis of the Effectiveness of Launch Traffic Model to the Space Debris Environment

未来航天发射情况直接影响空间碎片环境,必须对其进行合理规划,以维护外空长期可持续发展.利用中国自主建立的空间碎片长期演化模型(SOLEM),结合蒙特卡洛方法,量化分析了空间物体发射数量、发射质量、发射面积等因子对未来空间碎片环境的影响,进一步研究了大型星座造成的未来空间物体碰撞次数和碎片数量的增加.仿真结果可为合理规划未来的航天发射规模提供理论依据.

The future launch will directly affect the space debris environment,and it must be rationally planned for maintaining the long-term sustainable development of outer space.In this paper,the Space Object Long-term Evolution Model(SOLEM)and Monte Carlo method are used to quantitatively analyze the effects of the launch number,launch mass and launch area of space objects on the future space debris environment,and increase in the numbers of collisions and space debris caused by large constellations are studied.The simulation results show that the main factors affecting the collision are the number of launches,the launch area,and the launch mass,which will affect the number of debris generated by the collision.Deployment of large constellations will have a great impact on the space environment.These provide a theoretical basis for rational planning of the future launch.