中美贸易摩擦升级:情景模拟与贸易制裁效果后评估

Escalation of China-US Trade Dispute:Scenarios Simulation and Post Evaluation of Effect of Trade Sanctions

本文采用GTAP模型对2018年中美贸易摩擦的影响进行情景模拟分析,结合实际数据展开贸易制裁措施效果的后评估,并对2019年贸易摩擦升级的潜在影响予以前瞻性判断。研究结果表明,中美贸易摩擦将对中美宏观经济造成不利影响,而阿根廷等其他南美国家、韩国、巴西和东盟从中获益。中国的谷物、油料、肉类、运输设备、金属及其制品和电子设备的进口及运输设备和电子设备的出口受影响程度较大。后评估结果显示,中国对美国大豆等农产品和车辆及其零附件、塑料及其制品、金属及其制品、石油和液化天然气的出口制裁效果较理想。2019年贸易摩擦升级后,中国宏观经济和部分产业部门进出口将遭受更严重的冲击。

This paper applies the GTAP model to simulate the impact of the China-US trade dispute in 2018,and uses the actual data to make a post-evaluation of the effect of trade sanctions,and conducts a prospective simulation of the potential impacts of the escalation of the China-US trade dispute in 2019.The simulation results show that the China-US trade dispute will adversely affect the macroeconomy of China and the United States,while other South American countries such as Argentina,South Korea,Brazil and ASEAN could benefit from it.China is greatly affected in the imports of cereal grains,oilseeds,meat,transport equipment,metal and products thereof,electronic equipment,as well as in the exports of transport equipment and electronic equipment.The results of the post-evaluation show that China s trade sanctions against the exports of soybeans,vehicles and parts and accessories thereof,plastics and products thereof,metal and products thereof,petroleum oil,liquefied natural gas from USA have achieved relatively satisfactory effects.China’s macroeconomy and the import and export of some sectors will be seriously affected after the escalation of the China-US trade dispute in 2019.