地方政府行为与经济波动——基于资源错配的中介效应

Local Government Behavior and Economic Fluctuation--Mediation Effect Based on Resource Misallocation

基于2007~2017年全国258个地级及以上城市面板数据,采用固定效应分析方法考察了政府行为、资源错配对经济波动的影响机制。结果发现,整体上资本错配和劳动力错配均表现出稳健的部分中介效应,即政府行为可以直接或通过资源错配间接地影响经济波动,且资源错配对经济波动的影响呈现出"U"型特征;分区域来看,资源错配的中介效应在东、中部分别为完全中介效应和部分中介效应,在西部地区中介效应则不显著。由此提出,随着市场经济的发展,资源配置和经济稳定间的联系也愈加紧密,政府应重视地方政策对资源要素配置的辐射效应,以便稳定经济增长。

Based on the panel data of 258 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2007 to 2017, this paper adopts the fixed effect analysis method to investigate the influence mechanism of government behavior and resource misallocation on economic fluctuations. It finds that, on the whole, both capital misallocation and labor misallocation show a prudent partial mediation effect, which means that government behavior can affect economic fluctuations directly or affect economic fluctuations indirectly through resource misallocation, and the influence of resource misallocation on the economic fluctuation presents a "U" type feature. From the regional perspective, the mediation effects of resource misallocation in the eastern and the middle region are complete mediation effect and partial mediation effect respectively, but not significant in the western region. Therefore, with the development of market economy, the relationship between resource allocation and economic stability is increasingly close, so the government should pay attention to the radiation effect of local policies on resource element allocation to stabilize economic growth.